Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:05:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa6a1…6c58 world 43 markets active 0h ago coverage 523d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate43%18W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$7
sports 32% $0
other 19% −$8
finance 4% $0
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +1.0% -8.6% 45% 9% -8.5%
≤30d 29 +0.9% -8.7% 48% 10% -9.0%
≤90d 40 +0.6% -9.0% 45% 8% -9.3%
all 42 -4.2% -13.3% 43% 7% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 7% -9.7%
10% -21.6% 2% -18.3%
15% -29.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

523d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses18 / 24
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage523d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 54¢ 57¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $15 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $34 +$11 +33%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $44 −$3 -6%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $48 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $67 −$3 -4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $11 $0 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $52 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $25 −$1 -4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $48 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $47 $0 +1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $5 $0 -9%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $3 $0 -4%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $85 +$1 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $59 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $50 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 31 $47 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $40 −$1 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 26 $43 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $37 +$6 +16%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $47 −$2 -4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $46 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $37 −$1 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 22 $74 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $47 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 20 $51 −$2 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 20 $21 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 17 $4 $0 +12%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 16 $44 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $3 $0 -6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $49 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $48 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 15 $31 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $249 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $324 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $27 +$1 +4%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $257 −$1 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $48 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $272 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "Million" 15 or more times at CPAC conference on Saturd Mar 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Tottenham beat Liverpool? Jan 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 29m
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 2h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 2h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $11 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 32¢ $27 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 11h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 59¢ $41 16h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $17 17h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $27 17h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $48 23h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $3 23h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $45 23h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 39h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 41h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 5¢ $1 41h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 5¢ $3 41h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 5¢ $1 45h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 5¢ $3 45h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $35 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $10 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $37 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $7 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 5¢ $0 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 5¢ $0 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 5¢ $6 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.13 · official $0.00 (match) · 179 history records