Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:15:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa69d…509b sports 221 markets active 3h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$30,752 (+2%) realized +$34,452 · open −$3,700
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate57%124W / 95L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8,718per market
Trades / day18.7pace
Fees−$13,913est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$14,180now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43,730
7 days−$155,539
14 days−$132,180
30 days−$130,587
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$34,240
world 6% +$20,920
other 2% −$10,969
crypto 2% −$22,736
politics 0% −$813
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -51.7% -56.3% 27% 27% -39.7%
≤30d 64 -18.2% -26.0% 48% 48% -26.8%
≤90d 145 +4.5% -5.5% 58% 57% -8.2%
all 219 +1.3% -8.3% 57% 55% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.7 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 55% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.1% 52% -17.1%
15% -25.1% 49% -25.1%
20% -32.4% 36% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$11,108) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
13.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5,572 vs −$7,017 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$14,180
Realized+$34,452
Unrealized−$3,700
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses124 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$13,913
Open positions2
Markets (closed)219 / 221
History coverage164d
Avg bet$8,718
Trades / day18.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 219 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $9,400 $7,900 −$1,500 (-16%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $8,480 $6,280 −$2,200 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $39,706 +$16,293 +41%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $11,892 +$8,823 +74%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $2,888 −$2,834 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $27,848 +$21,448 +77%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $25,119 −$24,864 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $27,919 −$27,647 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $22,329 −$22,113 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $3,740 +$4,260 +114%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $11,466 +$6,534 +57%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $38,492 +$11,452 +30%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3,499 +$4,493 +128%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $11,108 +$6,873 +62%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $13,408 −$13,220 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $25,292 +$15,691 +62%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2,798 −$2,764 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 13 $2,150 −$2,150 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2,166 −$2,166 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 13 $2,541 −$2,541 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers (BO3) - LCK Chal Jun 13 $4,036 −$4,036 -100%
LoL: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Jun 13 $2,547 −$2,547 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 13 $3,980 −$3,980 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 13 $4,937 −$4,937 -100%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 13 $4,987 −$4,987 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 13 $4,300 −$4,300 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B Jun 13 $6,044 −$6,044 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 13 $2,087 −$2,087 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $2,695 −$2,695 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5,074 −$5,074 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 13 $6,332 −$6,332 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 13 $4,901 −$4,901 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs PARIVISION (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group Jun 13 $5,540 −$5,540 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group S Jun 13 $5,354 −$5,354 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group S Jun 13 $4,870 −$4,870 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $7,590 −$7,590 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B Jun 13 $8,297 −$8,297 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 13 $21,107 −$9,657 -46%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $8,710 −$8,710 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $12,137 −$12,137 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 13 $18,117 −$18,117 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs Jun 13 $15,089 −$15,089 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 13 $16,053 −$16,053 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3,820 +$4,180 +109%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $6,072 +$3,928 +65%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $7,882 +$4,118 +52%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $11,547 +$8,453 +73%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $6,514 +$3,623 +56%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $2,309 +$1,691 +73%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $7,742 +$1,387 +18%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $6,952 +$3,322 +48%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $4,380 +$3,620 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $15,748 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 52¢ $8,323 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 49¢ $4,967 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 34¢ $3,569 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 36¢ $2,888 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 66¢ $2,286 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 66¢ $10 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 66¢ $61 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 66¢ $62 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 66¢ $1,016 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 66¢ $2 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 66¢ $88 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 66¢ $99 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 66¢ $99 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 66¢ $108 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 66¢ $5 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 66¢ $97 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 66¢ $48 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 66¢ $2 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 66¢ $194 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 66¢ $2 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 66¢ $33 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 66¢ $197 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 66¢ $39 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 66¢ $11 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 66¢ $572 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 66¢ $1,099 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 66¢ $1,930 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 66¢ $9 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 66¢ $2 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14,180.00 · official $14,180.00 (match) · 3300 history records