Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:01:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa69d…228e sports 271 markets active 2h ago coverage 752d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$77 (-0%) realized +$31 · open −$108
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%117W / 149L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$203est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$121
7 days+$35
14 days+$329
30 days−$309
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$800
other 21% +$608
crypto 0% +$4
world 0% +$6
economics 0% $0
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +25.9% +13.9% 50% 50% +9.4%
≤30d 164 +5.2% -4.8% 40% 38% -11.9%
≤90d 174 +7.6% -2.7% 41% 40% -9.3%
all 266 +5.0% -5.0% 44% 41% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 41% -9.8%
10% -14.1% 40% -18.4%
15% -22.4% 40% -26.3%
20% -30.0% 40% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$66 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

752d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$31
Unrealized−$108
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses117 / 149
Est. fees paid−$203
Open positions5
Markets (closed)266 / 271
History coverage752d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 266 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Atlanta Braves 40¢ 22¢ $100 $54 −$46 (-46%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) New York Yankees 45¢ 28¢ $45 $28 −$18 (-39%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) Atlanta Braves 30¢ 38¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+28%)
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Philadelphia Phillies 38¢ 4¢ $49 $5 −$44 (-89%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 139 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 18 $79 +$121 +152%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 12 $86 −$86 -100%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 11 $46 −$46 -100%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 11 $25 −$25 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 11 $101 +$120 +119%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $99 −$52 -52%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 11 $35 +$65 +188%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $104 −$102 -98%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 10 $63 −$62 -99%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 10 $98 −$97 -99%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 10 $47 −$46 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 10 $105 −$104 -99%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 10 $70 −$70 -100%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. KT Wiz Jun 10 $20 −$20 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $46 +$50 +110%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 10 $109 −$28 -26%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 10 $43 +$57 +134%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 10 $115 +$185 +161%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 10 $87 +$163 +188%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 10 $52 −$51 -98%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 09 $88 −$88 -100%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $31 +$69 +226%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 09 $23 +$27 +116%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $50 +$50 +100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $35 −$25 -71%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 09 $49 +$87 +178%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 09 $38 −$38 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $47 −$46 -98%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 09 $129 +$172 +133%
Libema Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Panna Udvardy Jun 08 $14 +$16 +122%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $25 −$24 -98%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 08 $94 −$55 -58%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 07 $101 +$139 +138%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 07 $101 −$101 -100%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 07 $101 −$101 -100%
Will FC Ryūkyū win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $41 −$41 -99%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 07 $89 −$2 -2%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 07 $92 +$158 +172%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) Jun 07 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $24 −$1 -5%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 06 $139 +$191 +138%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 06 $73 −$72 -99%
Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Kyōto Sanga FC win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $29 +$64 +225%
Will Nagoya Grampus win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $48 −$47 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 06 $155 +$169 +109%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 06 $4 +$6 +154%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 05 $79 −$78 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $57 −$57 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 45¢ $29 1h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 45¢ $16 1h
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 40¢ $102 1h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 38¢ $50 2h
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 39¢ $79 5h
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 38¢ $86 6d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 30¢ $8 7d
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 37¢ $3 7d
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 37¢ $3 7d
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 37¢ $6 7d
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 37¢ $8 7d
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 37¢ $8 7d
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Hanwha Eagles BUY Kia Tigers 48¢ $25 7d
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 37¢ $16 7d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 52¢ $52 7d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 50¢ $50 7d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 47¢ $47 7d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 BUY Under 45¢ $101 7d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Milwaukee Brewers 50¢ $104 8d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 37¢ $23 8d
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) BUY Texas Rangers 34¢ $35 8d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 40¢ $22 8d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 40¢ $18 8d
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 36¢ $62 8d
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 36¢ $36 8d
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 31¢ $47 8d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $105 8d
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) BUY San Francisco Giants 35¢ $69 8d
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) BUY San Francisco Giants 35¢ $1 8d
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. KT Wiz BUY Samsung Lions 40¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.36 · official $100.01 (match) · 702 history records