Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:21:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa699…d6f8 world 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 492d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate53%16W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% −$6
other 18% $0
politics 4% $0
finance 3% $0
economics 1% $0
sports 2% +$3
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -2.1% -11.4% 57% 14% -8.1%
≤30d 16 -3.6% -12.8% 50% 6% -10.7%
≤90d 18 -3.5% -12.7% 44% 6% -10.6%
all 30 -0.1% -9.6% 53% 7% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 7% -9.8%
10% -18.3% 3% -18.5%
15% -26.2% 3% -26.3%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

492d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses16 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage492d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 25 $52 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 25 $32 +$6 +18%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 24 $6 −$2 -33%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $41 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $37 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $34 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $34 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $37 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $35 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $34 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $37 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $27 −$6 -21%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 29 $38 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $20 −$5 -24%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $21 $0 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $2 $0 -6%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $47 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 -2%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 09 $2 $0 +6%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 09 $9 $0 -0%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Jun 08 $8 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Jun 05 $9 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 04 $9 $0 -0%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $8 $0 +7%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $2 $0 +1%
Trump in Russia on Victory Day May 9? May 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Apr 20 $8 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 23 $11 $0 +1%
Grimace vs. DoubleYou Mar 05 $8 +$3 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $37 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $35 4h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $2 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 65¢ $3 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 65¢ $21 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 65¢ $13 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 55¢ $32 11h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 19h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $13 19h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $16 20h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 31h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 32h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $3 37h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $31 37h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $34 41h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 45h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 45h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 47h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 47h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 52¢ $16 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 52¢ $22 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 52¢ $37 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $34 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $34 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $34 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $34 3d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $37 19d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $37 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $33 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $33 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 85 history records