Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:32:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A6
0xa698…ab90
sports · 79 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
+$8 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$9 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$15
Realized+$9
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses36 / 29
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions14
Markets (closed)65 / 79
History coverage55d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 14 History 65 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 49¢ 46¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 28¢ 32¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+16%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Spirit 82¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Vitality 87¢ 73¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 53¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-39%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-6%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-5%)
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Cavaliers 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoffs BNK FEARX 82¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks San Francisco Giants 73¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs G2 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage PARIVISION 68¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: magic vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs FaZe 61¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage PARIVISION 42¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Cavaliers 88¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs Team Falcons 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage TheMongolz 53¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $8 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1 −$1 -60%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -26%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -11%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $2 −$2 -74%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 29 $1 $0 +41%
Counter-Strike: magic vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 28 $1 −$1 -99%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 28 $1 $0 -14%
NBA Playoffs: Thunder vs. Spurs Total Games O/U 5.5 May 25 $1 $0 +25%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 24 $1 −$1 -72%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 24 $1 $0 -21%
NBA Playoffs: Knicks vs. Cavaliers Total Games O/U 5.5 May 24 $1 −$1 -87%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Tommy Paul May 23 $1 $0 -28%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla May 23 $1 $0 +48%
Will OpenAI file for an IPO by June 5, 2026? May 23 $1 $0 -6%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 22 $2 $0 +6%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $2 $0 +12%
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 20 $1 −$1 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 May 20 $1 $0 +17%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 19 $1 $0 +49%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Q May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $4 −$1 -21%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 205.5 May 18 $2 +$1 +56%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $1 +$1 +97%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 18 $1 $0 +38%
Will Spirit win PGL Astana 2026? May 17 $5 +$9 +172%
Counter-Strike: magic vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 16 $6 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 16 $2 $0 +17%
Will FURIA win PGL Astana 2026? May 15 $4 −$1 -30%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $2 $0 +14%
Will Falcons win PGL Astana 2026? May 15 $12 −$3 -25%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $5 +$1 +19%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $2 +$2 +121%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 12 $12 −$10 -82%
Will Vitality win IEM Atlanta 2026? May 12 $1 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 12 $1 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group May 12 $1 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Group St May 12 $33 −$13 -39%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TYLOO (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 12 $2 $0 -19%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 12 $1 +$1 +82%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group May 11 $16 +$1 +5%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $1 +$1 +64%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $3 +$1 +20%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $1 +$1 +51%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $2 +$6 +283%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $2 $0 +17%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $13 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 77% +$11
other 15% +$5
crypto 8% −$7
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 30m
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 31m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 31m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 31m
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 31m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 32m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 87¢ $1 34m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL Vitality 100¢ $1 34m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 82¢ $1 39m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Aurora Gaming 43¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 59¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 29¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 88¢ $1 15h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 82¢ $1 15h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 100¢ $8 22h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 90¢ $7 23h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 16¢ $0 23h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Natus Vincere 10¢ $1 23h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 18¢ $1 23h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 38¢ $1 24h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 24h
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 24h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 24h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 24h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 24h
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 24h
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 24h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 24h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 24h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $0 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -14.8% -22.9% 40% 20% -13.5%
≤30d 36 -6.6% -15.5% 47% 42% -5.9%
≤90d 65 +2.1% -7.7% 55% 49% -4.3%
all 65 +2.1% -7.7% 55% 49% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 49% -4.3%
10% -16.5% 34% -13.4%
15% -24.6% 26% -21.8%
20% -32.0% 14% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.80 · official $14.80 (match) · 255 history records