Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:28:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A6 0xa698…ddba crypto 1120 markets active 0h ago coverage 233d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,691 (-1%) realized −$2,691 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate90%1004W / 116L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$255per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$71
14 days+$172
30 days+$289
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$2,638
weather 3% −$78
other 0% +$1
sports 0% −$5
politics 0% $0
world 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 105 +1.0% -8.7% 100% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 217 -0.0% -9.6% 97% 5% -9.0%
all 1120 -1.8% -11.1% 90% 11% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 11% -10.4%
10% -19.6% 6% -19.0%
15% -27.4% 6% -26.8%
20% -34.5% 5% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$71 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,691
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses1004 / 116
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1120 / 1120
History coverage233d
Avg bet$255
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1120 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 29 $582 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 29 $577 +$5 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 29 $572 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 29 $566 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 28 $561 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 27 $556 +$5 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 27 $551 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 27 $340 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 27 $542 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 27 $537 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 27 $537 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 27 $532 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 27 $152 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 27 $383 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 23 $522 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 22 $517 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $512 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 20 $398 +$4 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 20 $395 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 20 $391 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 20 $75 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 20 $387 +$4 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 19 $383 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 19 $379 +$4 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 19 $376 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 19 $372 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 19 $343 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 19 $366 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 19 $362 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 19 $359 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 19 $355 +$4 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 19 $288 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $349 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 18 $346 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 18 $343 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 18 $340 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $337 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $333 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $330 +$3 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $327 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $324 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $321 +$3 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $318 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $315 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $312 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $309 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $306 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $303 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $300 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $298 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $582 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $577 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $572 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $566 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $561 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $556 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $551 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $340 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $542 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $537 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $537 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $532 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $152 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $383 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $522 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $517 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $512 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $398 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $395 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $391 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $74 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $387 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $383 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $379 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $376 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $372 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $343 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $366 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $362 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2700 history records