Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:50:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa698…fc64 sports 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2,099 (+16%) realized +$2,100 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate48%13W / 14L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$445per market
Trades / day18.1pace
Fees−$173est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$218now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$176
14 days+$2,003
30 days+$2,003
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$1,547
other 21% +$455
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -23.8% -31.0% 33% 17% -6.4%
≤30d 27 -13.0% -21.3% 48% 22% +5.7%
≤90d 27 -13.0% -21.3% 48% 22% +5.7%
all 27 -13.0% -21.3% 48% 22% +5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 22% +5.7%
10% -28.8% 19% -4.4%
15% -35.7% 15% -13.6%
20% -42.0% 15% -22.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$895) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$223 vs −$64 · ×3.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.23 per $1 lost it wins $3.23
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$218
Realized+$2,100
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses13 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$173
Open positions2
Markets (closed)27 / 30
History coverage9d
Avg bet$445
Trades / day18.1
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $191 $187 −$3 (-2%)
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Yes 57¢ 61¢ $28 $30 +$2 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $328 −$47 -14%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 17 $88 +$7 +8%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $2,395 +$161 +7%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,629 +$371 +23%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $33 +$34 +103%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 14 $80 −$4 -5%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 14 $88 −$2 -3%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 14 $71 −$3 -4%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $302 −$302 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $19 −$19 -98%
Will ECDSA.fail get at least 50% ahead of Google’s classified circuit Jun 14 $68 −$43 -63%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,727 +$1,260 +73%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $403 +$32 +8%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $365 +$35 +10%
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 13 $323 −$320 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $174 +$219 +125%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $1,097 +$112 +10%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $268 +$29 +11%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $981 +$19 +2%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $188 +$12 +6%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $296 −$22 -8%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $895 +$611 +68%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $1,158 −$101 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $29 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $171 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $21 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 57¢ $281 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 3.5 Corners SELL Over 95¢ $95 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 88¢ $83 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 88¢ $5 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $328 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 82¢ $816 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $785 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 87¢ $1,001 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 87¢ $100 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 87¢ $100 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 87¢ $100 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 87¢ $100 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 87¢ $100 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 87¢ $100 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 87¢ $100 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 87¢ $17 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 87¢ $17 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 87¢ $1 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 87¢ $1 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 86¢ $4 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $1,610 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $0 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $1,629 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $5 5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 68¢ $68 5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $33 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 15¢ $15 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $217.92 · official $217.92 (match) · 174 history records