Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:29:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa696…1d24 politics 98 markets active 2h ago coverage 215d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,314 (-2%) realized −$1,301 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate63%58W / 34L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$694per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1,191now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$673
7 days−$629
14 days−$677
30 days−$659
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 26% −$706
other 23% +$171
politics 18% −$558
economics 13% +$91
finance 12% −$796
crypto 8% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -9.4% -18.0% 20% 0% -18.2%
≤30d 19 -8.3% -17.0% 32% 0% -16.3%
≤90d 42 -14.0% -22.2% 52% 10% -16.8%
all 92 -6.9% -15.8% 63% 11% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 11% -12.0%
10% -23.8% 3% -20.5%
15% -31.2% 2% -28.1%
20% -37.9% 1% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$95 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

215d coverage
Net worth$1,191
Realized−$1,301
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses58 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)92 / 98
History coverage215d
Avg bet$694
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? No 68¢ 86¢ $407 $510 +$103 (+25%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $286 $293 +$7 (+3%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,700 (LOW) in June? No 84¢ 99¢ $168 $199 +$31 (+18%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June? No 89¢ 94¢ $125 $131 +$6 (+5%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,200 (HIGH) in December? No 65¢ 66¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? No 9¢ 1¢ $180 $19 −$161 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by more than 15%? Jun 23 $126 −$64 -51%
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Jun 23 $60 −$8 -13%
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 23 $95 −$6 -6%
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 23 $449 −$2 -0%
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 23 $351 −$62 -18%
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Jun 23 $356 −$28 -8%
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Jun 23 $616 −$3 -0%
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? Jun 23 $332 −$6 -2%
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 23 $162 −$15 -9%
Will Harry Dunn be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Jun 23 $193 −$13 -7%
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 23 $260 −$28 -11%
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 22 $1,748 −$437 -25%
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 20 $341 +$11 +3%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 20 $307 +$14 +4%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in June? Jun 18 $1,139 +$19 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 13 $200 −$48 -24%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 03 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? May 30 $694 +$2 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 27 $1,304 +$10 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 23 $200 +$23 +11%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 14 $231 +$8 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? May 06 $291 +$9 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 06 $370 +$33 +9%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? May 06 $750 +$7 +1%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,450 (HIGH) in June? May 01 $344 −$343 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 22 $1,200 −$13 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 19 $170 −$28 -16%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 16 $300 +$6 +2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Apr 08 $410 +$55 +13%
Will Kirk Cousins play for Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2026-27? Apr 08 $149 +$1 +1%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Apr 07 $406 +$44 +11%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,050 (HIGH) in June? Apr 04 $646 −$646 -100%
Will Kirk Cousins play for Seattle Seahawks in 2026-27? Apr 02 $100 $0 +0%
Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by March 31? Apr 02 $168 +$16 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 1? Apr 02 $200 +$34 +17%
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31? Apr 02 $300 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 1? Mar 31 $20 −$19 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 1? Mar 31 $41 −$41 -99%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 31 $1,277 +$43 +3%
Tim Walz in jail by March 31? Mar 31 $1,200 +$8 +1%
Will the number of US flights delayed on March 29 be less than 6,000? Mar 29 $146 −$146 -100%
Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026? Mar 26 $1,900 +$31 +2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Mar 24 $1,280 +$18 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Mar 21 $1,455 +$33 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 21 $994 +$1 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 20 $1,463 +$30 +2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 12? Mar 15 $472 +$28 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 12 $1,149 −$36 -3%
Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" during Miami address? Mar 12 $118 +$60 +51%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of March? Mar 07 $1,364 +$113 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by more than 15%? SELL Yes 21¢ $62 2h
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in SELL No 9¢ $52 2h
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio SELL Yes 11¢ $89 2h
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? SELL Yes 24¢ $116 2h
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? SELL No 28¢ $122 2h
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? SELL No 83¢ $328 2h
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? SELL No 74¢ $330 2h
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? SELL Yes 77¢ $613 2h
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? SELL Yes 36¢ $140 2h
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? SELL Yes 74¢ $147 2h
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? SELL No 63¢ $186 2h
Will Harry Dunn be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? SELL Yes 11¢ $181 2h
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio SELL No 12¢ $232 2h
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? BUY No 9¢ $35 3h
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? BUY No 9¢ $4 3h
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? BUY No 9¢ $99 4h
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? BUY No 9¢ $20 4h
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? BUY No 9¢ $22 4h
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? BUY No 89¢ $17 6h
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? BUY No 89¢ $8 6h
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? BUY No 89¢ $28 6h
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? BUY No 89¢ $20 6h
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? BUY No 89¢ $9 6h
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? BUY No 89¢ $66 6h
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? BUY No 89¢ $44 6h
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? BUY No 64¢ $44 6h
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? BUY No 89¢ $156 7h
Will Harry Dunn be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 7h
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio BUY Yes 11¢ $0 7h
Will Harry Dunn be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,191.40 · official $1,191.40 (match) · 807 history records