Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:22:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa695…c8a4 sports 318 markets active 18h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$770 (-6%) realized −$770 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate46%146W / 172L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days−$5
14 days−$6
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% −$261
other 45% −$302
world 5% −$198
politics 3% −$3
crypto 1% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +0.5% -9.0% 53% 27% -10.1%
≤30d 41 -11.6% -20.0% 49% 32% -8.2%
≤90d 116 -17.6% -25.5% 41% 28% -17.8%
all 318 -13.6% -21.8% 46% 32% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.8% 32% -15.3%
10% -29.3% 23% -23.4%
15% -36.1% 16% -30.8%
20% -42.4% 9% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$15 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$770
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses146 / 172
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)318 / 318
History coverage466d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 318 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $10 +$1 +7%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $270 +$27 +10%
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Jun 13 $66 +$15 +22%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $68 −$2 -2%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $99 −$7 -7%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $84 −$12 -14%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $18 −$12 -66%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $62 −$34 -54%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $17 −$3 -19%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 +$6 +109%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $17 +$2 +14%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $12 $0 +4%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 $0 +9%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 −$1 -16%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 08 $114 +$13 +11%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $77 +$12 +16%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $31 −$13 -42%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $22 +$10 +44%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $16 +$7 +44%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $11 −$1 -11%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 30 $70 +$9 +12%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $72 $0 -0%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres May 27 $25 +$2 +6%
Will Rayo Vallecano win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? May 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs NIP - Map 2 Winner May 27 $11 −$3 -27%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 27 $10 +$1 +7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 23 $23 +$4 +18%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $5 −$2 -40%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $10 −$5 -50%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $3 −$3 -98%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5 May 20 $22 +$11 +48%
Will SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? May 20 $3 −$2 -72%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $5 −$4 -76%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 May 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Bulgaria win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 16 $3 +$6 +190%
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 16 $7 +$6 +78%
Will Germany be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 $0 -73%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $2 −$1 -42%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina May 16 $100 +$5 +5%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $88 +$16 +18%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $70 +$38 +54%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 4.5 May 15 $19 −$19 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $123 −$64 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 15 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 15 $5 −$4 -80%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 13 $11 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN - Map 2 Winner May 13 $29 +$36 +126%
Set Handicap: Jodar (-1.5) vs Darderi (+1.5) May 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? May 13 $1 $0 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 72¢ $11 17h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 66¢ $10 18h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL MOUZ 99¢ $108 22h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 81¢ $89 22h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL MOUZ 80¢ $86 22h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 93¢ $100 22h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL MOUZ 87¢ $103 22h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 67¢ $81 22h
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) SELL Qatar 99¢ $81 39h
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) BUY Qatar 81¢ $66 40h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 60¢ $66 42h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $68 42h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 12¢ $8 43h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 18¢ $12 43h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Team Falcons 68¢ $72 45h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 78¢ $84 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 76¢ $84 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 77¢ $86 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 15¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 42¢ $18 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 31¢ $14 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 33¢ $15 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 56¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 71¢ $50 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 43¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 68¢ $8 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 70¢ $4 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 71¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1018 history records