Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:30:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa68d…eab5 sports 209 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$50 (+0%) realized +$49 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate56%107W / 83L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day42.5pace
Fees−$104est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$657now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$143
7 days+$554
14 days−$612
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$40
other 16% +$215
world 16% −$279
crypto 0% +$1
politics 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +4.0% -5.9% 75% 69% +16.1%
≤30d 190 +11.5% +0.9% 56% 53% -9.9%
≤90d 190 +11.5% +0.9% 56% 53% -9.9%
all 190 +11.5% +0.9% 56% 53% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.9% 53% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -8.8% 46% -18.5%
15% -17.6% 39% -26.4%
20% -25.7% 35% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$48 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$657
Realized+$49
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses107 / 83
Est. fees paid−$104
Open positions19
Markets (closed)190 / 209
History coverage29d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day42.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 190 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 88¢ $120 $118 −$2 (-1%)
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? No 94¢ 94¢ $99 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 88¢ $68 $70 +$2 (+3%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 66¢ 94¢ $40 $57 +$17 (+42%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 71¢ 70¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 45¢ 45¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Will Aaron Judge lead the MLB in RBIs for the 2026 regular season? No 82¢ 99¢ $29 $35 +$6 (+21%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds St. Louis Cardinals 45¢ 38¢ $29 $25 −$4 (-15%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? No 82¢ 98¢ $19 $23 +$4 (+20%)
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 94¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $14 $14 +$1 (+4%)
Will Jacob Misiorowski win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? Yes 24¢ 44¢ $6 $11 +$5 (+83%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Over 44¢ 43¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Will Romelu Lukaku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 68¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-8%)
Will New York Yankees win the 2026 AL East title? Yes 56¢ 71¢ $6 $7 +$2 (+27%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-5%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 66¢ $30 $3 −$27 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $216 +$21 +10%
Iraq to win the second half? Jun 17 $28 +$3 +12%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $34 +$39 +114%
Senegal to win the second half? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +18%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30 −$30 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $61 −$60 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $122 −$120 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $31 +$3 +11%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $297 +$304 +102%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $247 +$210 +85%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $369 +$73 +20%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $13 +$2 +19%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $156 +$51 +33%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $221 +$44 +20%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $117 +$25 +22%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $121 −$18 -14%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Jun 10 $14 −$14 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 09 $30 −$30 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $29 −$29 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 09 $64 −$64 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $40 −$40 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $250 +$4 +2%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $360 −$311 -86%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 09 $30 +$36 +119%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 09 $39 −$39 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 08 $31 −$30 -98%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $29 +$12 +43%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $111 +$87 +78%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $30 +$8 +26%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 07 $15 +$5 +31%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 07 $48 +$12 +25%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $46 −$46 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $119 −$117 -98%
Will Albania win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $20 +$26 +134%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $30 +$24 +79%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Jun 06 $56 −$55 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $20 +$7 +36%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Roland Garros Women's Singles? Jun 06 $15 +$4 +26%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $70 −$69 -98%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $25 −$25 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 06 $343 −$335 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $5 +$5 +93%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $89 −$89 -99%
Map Handicap: BIG (-1.5) vs NRG (+1.5) Jun 05 $38 +$29 +76%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $21 +$3 +14%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $44 +$46 +103%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $30 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 2h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 3h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $23 3h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 3h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 4h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 4h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 4h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $30 9h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $30 9h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $6 9h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $30 9h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $30 9h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $30 9h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $30 9h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $30 9h
Iraq to win the second half? BUY No 89¢ $28 14h
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY No 95¢ $30 14h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $30 15h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $30 15h
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY No 95¢ $30 16h
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY No 93¢ $11 16h
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY No 93¢ $17 16h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 46¢ $34 17h
Senegal to win the second half? BUY No 84¢ $5 17h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $30 18h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 18h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 19h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 20h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $657.31 · official $657.31 (match) · 1386 history records