trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | -18.2% | -26.0% | 50% | 12% | -32.0% |
| ≤30d | 9 | -12.0% | -20.3% | 56% | 22% | -30.3% |
| ≤90d | 9 | -12.0% | -20.3% | 56% | 22% | -30.3% |
| all | 9 | -12.0% | -20.3% | 56% | 22% | -30.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -20.3% | 22% | -30.3% |
| 10% | -28.0% | 22% | -36.9% |
| 15% | -34.9% | 22% | -43.0% |
| 20% | -41.3% | 0% | -48.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 4¢ | 5¢ | $435 | $589 | +$154 (+35%) |
| Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 4¢ | 2¢ | $46 | $22 | −$24 (-53%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | Jun 20 | $42 | −$30 | -73% |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO da | Jun 20 | $41 | −$25 | -62% |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? | Jun 20 | $16 | −$7 | -40% |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? | Jun 20 | $7 | −$2 | -27% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? | Jun 20 | $5 | +$2 | +43% |
| Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? | Jun 20 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June | Jun 20 | $10 | +$1 | +9% |
| Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Jun 20 | $101 | +$4 | +4% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? | Jun 09 | $7 | +$3 | +38% |