Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:03:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa689…4253 crypto 489 markets active 1h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$98 (-4%) realized −$98 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate53%255W / 222L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days−$62
14 days−$62
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% +$2
weather 33% −$53
world 7% −$20
sports 6% −$28
other 5% +$9
economics 1% −$12
finance 1% −$7
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -8.5% -17.2% 34% 32% -35.3%
≤30d 68 +4.5% -5.5% 62% 60% -17.9%
≤90d 405 -2.5% -11.8% 55% 47% -11.8%
all 477 -5.2% -14.3% 53% 45% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 45% -13.8%
10% -22.5% 29% -22.1%
15% -30.0% 19% -29.6%
20% -36.8% 14% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$98
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses255 / 222
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions12
Markets (closed)477 / 489
History coverage160d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 477 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 88¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 87¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Under 79¢ 78¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 74¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-8%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 51¢ 58¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+15%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 64¢ 57¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-10%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 70¢ 56¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-21%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-14%)
Will Erling Haaland record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 13¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+160%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 10¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+36%)
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $4 +$1 +40%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $8 +$2 +24%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $7 −$7 -99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $21 +$4 +17%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$8 +349%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $8 +$2 +31%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $7 +$8 +124%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $7 +$3 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 16? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $8 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C or higher on May 2 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C or higher on May Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on May 28? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C or higher on May 29? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on May 23? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C or higher on May 26? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C or higher on May 24? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C or below on May 27? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$6 +158%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $2 +$18 +982%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $4 +$6 +180%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C or higher on May 31? Jun 03 $1 $0 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $5 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C or higher on June 1? Jun 02 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 1? Jun 01 $5 +$2 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 1? Jun 01 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C or higher on May 3 Jun 01 $5 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C or below on May 3 Jun 01 $5 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C or higher on May 30? May 31 $4 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C or below on May 3 May 31 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on May 30? May 31 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on May 30? May 31 $4 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C or higher on May 2 May 30 $5 +$1 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 36m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $8 37m
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 BUY Under 18¢ $1 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $7 3h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 80¢ $8 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 71¢ $4 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $6 25h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 25h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 25h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $2 34h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Under 68¢ $3 34h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $21 34h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 44h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 81¢ $24 46h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $13 46h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $8 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Under 44¢ $7 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? SELL No 22¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? SELL No 71¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 16? SELL No 73¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? SELL No 86¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? BUY No 83¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 82¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15? BUY No 66¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.39 · official $48.40 (match) · 1526 history records