Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:26:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa684…19a6 crypto 67 markets active 1d ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$233 (+10%) realized +$233 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%14W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$97
7 days+$437
14 days+$437
30 days+$437
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% −$82
sports 46% +$426
other 6% −$126
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-42.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -56.9% -61.0% 17% 17% +28.0%
≤30d 6 -56.9% -61.0% 17% 17% +28.0%
≤90d 7 -63.0% -66.5% 14% 14% +12.4%
all 61 -36.4% -42.4% 23% 23% -0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.4% 23% -0.8%
10% -47.9% 23% -10.3%
15% -53.0% 23% -19.0%
20% -57.6% 23% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 60% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -85% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$20 · ×4.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$233
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses14 / 47
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions6
Markets (closed)61 / 67
History coverage108d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+32%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-19%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-27%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $99 −$97 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $896 +$583 +65%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $29 −$29 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Gujarat Titans Mar 31 $149 −$147 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 03 $9 −$9 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 3, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Mar 03 $8 −$8 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 3, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Mar 03 $2 −$2 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Mar 02 $10 −$10 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Mar 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Mar 02 $19 −$19 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Mar 02 $10 +$9 +95%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Mar 02 $10 −$10 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Mar 02 $10 −$10 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Mar 02 $10 −$10 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Mar 02 $10 −$10 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Mar 02 $10 −$10 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Mar 02 $10 −$10 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Mar 02 $40 −$40 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Mar 02 $10 −$10 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Mar 02 $59 −$58 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Mar 02 $10 −$10 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Mar 02 $10 −$10 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Mar 02 $10 −$10 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Mar 02 $20 −$20 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Mar 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Mar 02 $10 −$10 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Mar 02 $10 −$10 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Mar 02 $10 −$10 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Mar 02 $41 +$78 +190%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Mar 02 $10 +$30 +298%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Mar 02 $57 −$56 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Mar 02 $10 −$10 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Mar 02 $72 +$95 +131%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Mar 02 $10 −$10 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Mar 02 $40 +$42 +106%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Mar 02 $10 −$10 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Mar 02 $10 −$10 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Mar 02 $11 −$11 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Mar 02 $11 −$11 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Mar 01 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Mar 01 $11 −$11 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Mar 01 $45 −$45 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Mar 01 $11 +$34 +313%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Mar 01 $66 −$65 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Mar 01 $32 +$34 +106%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Mar 01 $101 +$111 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Mar 01 $51 +$50 +98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $99 28h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,479 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $896 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $29 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 54¢ $10 4d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 5d
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Gujarat Titans BUY Gujarat Titans 41¢ $149 79d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $9 107d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 3, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $8 107d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 3, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 107d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $10 108d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $10 108d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $19 108d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $19 108d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 108d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $10 108d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 108d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $10 108d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 108d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 108d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 108d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $40 108d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.31 · official $9.33 (match) · 87 history records