Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:51:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa683…ae10 politics 144 markets active 2h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$21 (-0%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate8%11W / 132L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$312per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$22
politics 32% −$18
sports 10% +$19
tech 5% −$2
crypto 4% −$1
world 2% −$1
economics 1% −$2
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 24 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 105 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 143 +3.1% -6.8% 8% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 4% -9.6%
10% -15.7% 2% -18.2%
15% -23.8% 1% -26.1%
20% -31.3% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×8.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses11 / 132
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)143 / 144
History coverage126d
Avg bet$312
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $40 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $50 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $35 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $39 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $35 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 11 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $244 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $36 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $279 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $48 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $328 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $575 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $627 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $594 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $492 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $268 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $465 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $213 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $597 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $740 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? May 22 $269 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $253 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $238 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $566 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 21 $228 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $770 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 18 $237 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $246 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $554 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $786 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $217 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $598 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $471 −$1 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $285 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $237 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $219 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $210 $0 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 05 $211 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $508 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $573 −$1 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $287 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $564 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $223 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $483 −$1 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $892 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 29 $265 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $27 1h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 1h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 4h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 10h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 2d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 2d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 2d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 6d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $35 6d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $35 6d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $35 7d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $35 7d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $28 9d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $28 9d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $25 10d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $25 11d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $28 12d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 12d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $36 13d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $36 13d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $49 16d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $49 16d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $48 17d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 18d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $47 18d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $47 19d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $36 19d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 20d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $31 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.99 · official $26.99 (match) · 458 history records