Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:20:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

A6 0xa67d…dbec crypto 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$10 (+0%) realized +$421 · open −$411

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip

Net edge-22%after slip

Net WR27%break-even

Win rate27%6W / 16L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$106per market

Trades / day42.0pace

Kalshi-fit79%portable

Net worth$280now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +27%

net ROI/market (all)-8.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	22	+1.6%	-8.1%	27%	27%	-20.7%
≤30d	22	+1.6%	-8.1%	27%	27%	-20.7%
≤90d	22	+1.6%	-8.1%	27%	27%	-20.7%
all	22	+1.6%	-8.1%	27%	27%	-20.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover42.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-8.1%	27%	-20.7%
10% ← realistic here	-16.9%	27%	-28.3%
15%	-24.9%	23%	-35.2%
20%	-32.3%	18%	-41.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 53% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +2% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +40% → late -37% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$224 vs −$101 · ×2.21 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.83 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$280

Realized+$421

Unrealized−$411

Win rate (resolved)27%

Wins / losses6 / 16

Open positions6

Markets (closed)22 / 28

History coverage1d

Avg bet$106

Trades / day42.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 6 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	Up	25¢	30¢	$100	$121	+$21 (+21%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	11¢	10¢	$100	$86	−$14 (-14%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	5¢	4¢	$100	$71	−$29 (-29%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Up	6¢	0¢	$100	$1	−$99 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Down	20¢	0¢	$191	$0	−$190 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Down	17¢	0¢	$100	$0	−$100 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET	Jun 17	$290	−$290	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Jun 17	$159	+$713	+447%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Jun 17	$85	−$85	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Jun 17	$107	−$107	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Jun 17	$265	−$265	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Jun 17	$107	−$107	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Jun 17	$107	−$107	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Jun 17	$91	−$91	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET	Jun 17	$106	−$106	-100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria?	Jun 17	$103	−$103	-100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$54	+$24	+44%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria?	Jun 17	$258	+$254	+99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Jun 17	$58	−$58	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Jun 17	$53	−$53	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Jun 17	$29	−$29	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Jun 17	$62	−$62	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Jun 17	$107	−$107	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Jun 17	$53	+$297	+557%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Jun 17	$53	−$40	-75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Jun 17	$24	−$14	-57%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway?	Jun 17	$11	+$41	+386%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$55	+$19	+34%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	BUY Up	25¢	$106	0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$872	5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	BUY Down	17¢	$159	9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET	BUY Up	13¢	$183	35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	BUY Down	17¢	$106	47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET	BUY Up	14¢	$107	49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	BUY Up	5¢	$55	56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	BUY Up	7¢	$52	56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	BUY Down	20¢	$203	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	BUY Up	25¢	$31	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	BUY Up	23¢	$234	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	BUY Up	14¢	$107	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$77	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	BUY Up	19¢	$85	1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria?	BUY Yes	14¢	$103	1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria?	SELL Yes	29¢	$512	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET	BUY Up	23¢	$106	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	BUY Up	8¢	$107	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	BUY Down	4¢	$50	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	BUY Down	2¢	$49	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	BUY Down	5¢	$9	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	BUY Down	3¢	$23	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	BUY Down	2¢	$68	1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	BUY Yes	5¢	$100	2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	11¢	$103	2h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria?	BUY Yes	14¢	$258	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	BUY Down	21¢	$58	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	BUY Down	7¢	$53	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$350	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	BUY Up	14¢	$53	2h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $280.34 · official $280.34 (match) · 57 history records