Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:46:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa678…2992 sports 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$9 (-2%) realized −$7 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%6W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$21
other 17% −$31
weather 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -1.2% -10.6% 46% 46% -12.8%
≤30d 13 -1.2% -10.6% 46% 46% -12.8%
≤90d 13 -1.2% -10.6% 46% 46% -12.8%
all 13 -1.2% -10.6% 46% 46% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 46% -12.8%
10% -19.2% 46% -21.1%
15% -27.0% 46% -28.7%
20% -34.1% 38% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$21 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$7
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses6 / 7
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage3d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs EDward Gaming 58¢ 57¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $30 +$37 +123%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $22 +$23 +101%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $59 +$44 +74%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $32 −$31 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$13 +250%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $20 +$18 +89%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $10 +$5 +48%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $22 −$22 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 58¢ $30 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 17h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $68 17h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY FUT Esports 63¢ $10 18h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY FUT Esports 38¢ $20 19h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $45 19h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 49¢ $22 22h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 33¢ $10 27h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 68¢ $20 40h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 18¢ $10 41h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 83¢ $20 43h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL EDward Gaming 100¢ $83 43h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 45¢ $18 47h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 27¢ $10 2d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 45¢ $20 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL EDward Gaming 45¢ $19 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 46¢ $20 2d
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl SELL Team Vitality 100¢ $38 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 46¢ $20 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $15 2d
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Vitality 52¢ $20 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 67¢ $10 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 9¢ $1 3d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 13¢ $5 3d
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $31 3d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 5¢ $2 3d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 52¢ $20 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.46 · official $58.46 (match) · 30 history records