Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:38:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa676…e6df world 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 283d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate27%14W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$3
other 16% $0
politics 12% −$1
sports 11% $0
culture 11% $0
crypto 10% −$4
tech 2% $0
finance 1% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.5% -9.1% 12% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 14 -0.9% -10.4% 21% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 16 -1.1% -10.6% 25% 0% -9.9%
all 51 -8.2% -16.9% 27% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 0% -10.2%
10% -24.9% 0% -18.8%
15% -32.1% 0% -26.6%
20% -38.8% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

283d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses14 / 37
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage283d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 51 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $53 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $58 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $35 +$1 +4%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $98 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $26 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $16 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $32 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $46 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $48 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $46 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $8 −$1 -11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $16 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $2 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $6 $0 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $55 −$3 -5%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $54 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. take over Gaza in 2025? Jan 31 $7 $0 +2%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Dec 04 $2 −$1 -57%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Nov 30 $19 $0 +2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 28 $4 $0 -1%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Nov 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Oct 31 $11 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Oct 28 $7 $0 -2%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Oct 26 $19 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 26 $29 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 26 $47 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in October? Oct 26 $21 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 26 $1 $0 -22%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 26 $23 $0 +0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 25 $27 $0 +0%
Meteora FDV above $1B one day after launch? Oct 24 $28 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will Diddy be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 23 $28 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 09 $27 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Sep 29 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 28 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 19 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 19 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in September? Sep 19 $27 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 18 $1 $0 -11%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 18 $28 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 17 $85 $0 -0%
Skye Valadez confirmed perp? Sep 17 $28 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 16 $0 $0 -9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 15 $28 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 14 $29 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 13 $31 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 51¢ $48 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 51¢ $4 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $53 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $11 7h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $9 7h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $13 7h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $33 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $22 37h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $15 37h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 39h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $32 39h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $32 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $14 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $32 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $14 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $22 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $16 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $14 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $11 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $21 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $32 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $13 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $12 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $25 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 194 history records