Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:44:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A6 0xa674…f49c crypto 549 markets active 1h ago coverage 173d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$679 (-1%) realized −$679 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate88%481W / 68L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$192per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$93
7 days+$195
14 days+$195
30 days+$192
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$879
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 184 +5.1% -4.9% 88% 66% -3.8%
≤30d 193 +6.8% -3.4% 88% 64% -4.0%
≤90d 232 +4.3% -5.6% 87% 55% -5.4%
all 549 +1.9% -7.8% 88% 40% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 40% -10.3%
10% -16.6% 9% -18.9%
15% -24.7% 5% -26.7%
20% -32.1% 3% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$127 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$679
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses481 / 68
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)549 / 549
History coverage173d
Avg bet$192
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 549 Trades
no open positions (42 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 28 $8 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 28 $8 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 28 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 28 $51 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 28 $31 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 28 $28 −$28 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 28 $19 −$18 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$3 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 28 $8 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 28 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 27 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 27 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 27 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 27 $9 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 27 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 27 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 27 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 27 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 27 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 27 $9 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 27 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 27 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 27 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 27 $9 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 27 $8 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 26 $248 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 26 $109 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 26 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 26 $126 +$88 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 26 $9 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 26 $11 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 26 $9 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $8 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $8 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $8 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $9 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $9 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $9 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $9 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $9 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $9 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $9 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $9 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.20 · official $18.20 (match) · 1192 history records