Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:25:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa673…0152 other 105 markets active 2h ago coverage 184d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$78 (-3%) realized −$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate38%52W / 86L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$124
7 days−$124
14 days−$124
30 days−$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$222
crypto 9% −$70
sports 5% −$26
world 4% +$13
politics 3% −$39
economics 3% −$21
finance 2% −$3
tech 2% +$8
weather 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-34.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -90.9% -91.8% 6% 6% -51.1%
≤30d 45 -69.2% -72.2% 20% 13% -23.2%
≤90d 96 -40.0% -45.7% 28% 18% -25.5%
all 138 -28.0% -34.9% 38% 28% -25.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.9% 28% -25.5%
10% -41.1% 17% -32.6%
15% -46.8% 14% -39.1%
20% -52.0% 9% -45.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -56% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$11 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

184d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses52 / 86
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)138 / 105
History coverage184d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 138 Trades
no open positions (34 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Tuyo FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 24 $67 +$10 +15%
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2028? Jun 22 $33 +$5 +15%
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between -4% and -2% in May? Jun 22 $31 −$1 -4%
Will 4+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA Jun 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will Citigroup (C) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $3.1B? Jun 08 $31 +$22 +70%
Will Frenkie de Jong score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $21 +$4 +21%
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 2% and 4% in May? Jun 04 $41 +$15 +36%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 26, 2026? Jun 03 $13 +$3 +25%
3Jane FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? Jun 02 $30 −$1 -2%
3Jane FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 02 $30 +$1 +3%
3Jane FDV above $2B one day after launch? Jun 02 $30 +$3 +9%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on May 26? May 26 $56 −$3 -5%
Amazon 2026 capex above $210B? May 25 $24 −$1 -3%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 07 $41 −$9 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 07 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? May 06 $80 $0 +0%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tuyo FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL No 79¢ $77 1h
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2028? SELL Yes 64¢ $38 43h
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between -4% and -2% in May? SELL Yes 26¢ $30 43h
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between -4% and -2% in May? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 8d
Will 4+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA SELL Yes 20¢ $8 8d
Will 4+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA BUY Yes 19¢ $8 11d
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2028? BUY Yes 54¢ $23 13d
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2028? BUY Yes 52¢ $11 13d
Tuyo FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 66¢ $67 13d
Will Citigroup (C) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $3.1B? SELL No 86¢ $52 16d
Will Frenkie de Jong score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 62¢ $1 19d
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 2% and 4% in May? SELL No 76¢ $56 20d
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $16 21d
Will Frenkie de Jong score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 62¢ $25 21d
Will Frenkie de Jong score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 50¢ $21 21d
Will Citigroup (C) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $3.1B? BUY No 49¢ $31 21d
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $13 21d
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 2% and 4% in May? BUY No 54¢ $41 21d
3Jane FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? SELL No 86¢ $30 21d
3Jane FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 87¢ $31 21d
3Jane FDV above $2B one day after launch? SELL No 92¢ $33 21d
3Jane FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 83¢ $30 22d
3Jane FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? BUY No 86¢ $30 22d
3Jane FDV above $2B one day after launch? BUY No 83¢ $30 22d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on May 26? SELL Yes 54¢ $53 28d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on May 26? BUY Yes 56¢ $56 28d
Amazon 2026 capex above $210B? SELL No 64¢ $23 30d
Amazon 2026 capex above $210B? BUY No 65¢ $19 31d
Amazon 2026 capex above $210B? BUY No 65¢ $5 32d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $41 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 528 history records