Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:50:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A6 0xa672…74ae other 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$206 (+17%) realized +$185 · open +$21
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%14W / 7L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$140now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$99
7 days+$109
14 days+$50
30 days+$138
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$239
other 42% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -15.9% -23.9% 45% 45% +3.8%
≤30d 17 +4.9% -5.0% 59% 59% +2.7%
≤90d 21 +22.8% +11.1% 67% 67% +6.4%
all 21 +22.8% +11.1% 67% 67% +6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.1% 67% +6.4%
10% +0.5% 62% -3.7%
15% -9.2% 48% -13.0%
20% -18.1% 29% -21.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +65% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$28 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.97 per $1 lost it wins $1.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$140
Realized+$185
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses14 / 7
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions7
Markets (closed)21 / 28
History coverage36d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 82¢ 100¢ $98 $120 +$22 (+22%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Croatia? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$25 +246%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $240 +$52 +22%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $200 +$69 +35%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$21 +42%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $100 +$81 +81%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $60 −$59 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $5 +$11 +206%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $100 +$33 +33%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $60 +$18 +30%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $40 +$16 +40%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $20 +$10 +49%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $20 +$10 +50%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 218.5 May 16 $20 +$18 +89%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $10 +$15 +151%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs M80 (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 13 $9 +$10 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $100 1h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes $2 19h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 19h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes $2 19h
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes $2 23h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 23h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 23h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 33h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 79¢ $100 33h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 33h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 81¢ $240 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $15 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 73¢ $200 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $100 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $60 8d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 74¢ $100 19d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 76¢ $20 22d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 75¢ $20 22d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 75¢ $20 22d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 70¢ $40 26d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 100¢ $30 27d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 65¢ $20 28d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 31d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves SELL Spurs 100¢ $30 31d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 218.5 SELL Over 100¢ $38 31d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 218.5 BUY Over 52¢ $20 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139.71 · official $139.71 (match) · 47 history records