Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:08:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa66d…fc01 other 248 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$80 (-0%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%10W / 237L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$225per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$17
14 days−$28
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$46
sports 25% −$20
politics 9% −$10
culture 6% −$9
economics 5% −$3
crypto 4% −$4
world 2% −$2
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 63 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 174 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 247 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 237
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)247 / 248
History coverage136d
Avg bet$225
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 247 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? No 99¢ 99¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $179 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $258 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1,009 −$2 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $693 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $157 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $314 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $405 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $873 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $132 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $126 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $156 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $259 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $538 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $163 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $404 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $539 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $192 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $290 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 12 $327 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $129 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $369 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $796 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $496 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $144 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $343 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $211 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $299 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $196 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $278 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $875 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $211 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $226 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $444 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $597 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 07 $383 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $280 −$2 -1%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $455 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $630 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $433 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $244 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $405 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $204 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $327 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $315 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 01 $175 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $455 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $146 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 31 $220 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $426 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $57 1h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 2h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 3h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $57 8h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $57 10h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 14h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 16h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 20h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 21h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 24h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 25h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $58 36h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $58 37h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $58 39h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $58 41h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $58 43h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 45h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $58 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $59 2d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $59 2d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $59 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $59 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $59 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.22 · official $57.22 (match) · 1409 history records