Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:27:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A6 0xa66d…6daa sports 504 markets active 0h ago coverage 156d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,206 (+0%) realized +$2,066 · open +$1,140
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate51%256W / 243L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,347per market
Trades / day18.4pace
Fees−$12,552est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$11,658now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 156d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$15,840
crypto 12% −$22,062
other 0% −$1,778
world 0% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +7.5% -2.7% 64% 64% +27.8%
≤30d 155 -6.9% -15.7% 56% 50% -17.5%
≤90d 452 -17.2% -25.1% 49% 42% -12.3%
all 499 -6.2% -15.1% 51% 44% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.4 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.1% 44% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -23.3% 37% -19.3%
15% -30.7% 29% -27.1%
20% -37.5% 21% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$1,267) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$739 vs −$816 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$11,658
Realized+$2,066
Unrealized+$1,140
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses256 / 243
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$12,552
Open positions4
Markets (closed)499 / 504
History coverage156d
Avg bet$1,347
Trades / day18.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 499 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Under 64¢ 72¢ $8,421 $9,366 +$944 (+11%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 66¢ $1,650 $2,291 +$641 (+39%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Under 53¢ $430 $0 −$430 (-100%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 Under 33¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $15 +$3 +18%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $1,304 +$650 +50%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 19 $756 −$747 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $406 −$216 -53%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 19 $2,028 +$937 +46%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Jun 19 $147 −$145 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 19 $621 −$54 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 19 $102 +$21 +21%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 19 $337 +$183 +54%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 19 $450 +$356 +79%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $704 +$159 +23%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5 Jun 19 $675 +$494 +73%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $1,216 +$970 +80%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 19 $899 +$553 +62%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $334 −$330 -99%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 18 $761 −$750 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 Jun 18 $202 −$200 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $507 −$500 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $5,023 +$3,531 +70%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $402 −$94 -23%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $127 +$74 +58%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $4,873 +$4,999 +103%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,942 −$1,922 -99%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston Jun 18 $4,334 +$2,143 +50%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 Jun 18 $1,109 +$385 +35%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $1,395 +$1,406 +101%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $593 +$342 +58%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $812 +$755 +93%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 03 $325 −$321 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 03 $3,644 +$325 +9%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 02 $10,080 −$9,783 -97%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 Jun 02 $1,013 +$619 +61%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 02 $7,361 +$3,103 +42%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 02 $3,653 +$1,796 +49%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 02 $521 −$521 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 02 $1,046 −$1,046 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 02 $4,307 +$30 +1%
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5 Jun 02 $4,594 −$4,089 -89%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals Jun 02 $7,332 −$1,593 -22%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 02 $8,235 −$8,235 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $1,275 −$17 -1%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $13,305 +$1,823 +14%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 27 $128 −$128 -100%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) May 27 $303 −$303 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 27 $1,947 −$34 -2%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) May 27 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 27 $8,481 −$8,481 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Alina Korneeva vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto May 27 $2,870 −$2,870 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 May 26 $4,558 +$2,777 +61%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniel Altmaier May 26 $6,873 +$2,262 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 75¢ $855 12m
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 58¢ $515 21m
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? SELL Yes 10¢ $18 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $9,096 1h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,954 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 47¢ $23 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 11¢ $1 1h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $1,122 1h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $182 1h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes $15 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 33¢ $13 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 33¢ $3 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 22¢ $31 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 47¢ $125 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 59¢ $405 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 26¢ $190 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $915 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Chicago Cubs 80¢ $322 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Chicago Cubs 80¢ $8 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Chicago Cubs 80¢ $5 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Chicago Cubs 80¢ $7 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Chicago Cubs 80¢ $162 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Chicago Cubs 80¢ $5 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Chicago Cubs 80¢ $75 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Chicago Cubs 80¢ $4 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Chicago Cubs 80¢ $5 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Chicago Cubs 80¢ $546 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Chicago Cubs 80¢ $368 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Chicago Cubs 80¢ $130 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Chicago Cubs 80¢ $58 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,657.72 · official $11,707.72 (match) · 3116 history records