Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:02:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A6 0xa66d…49fd other 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$71 (+8%) realized +$71 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%19W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$30
14 days+$120
30 days+$165
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$25
politics 8% +$29
crypto 4% $0
sports 4% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +19.7% +8.3% 71% 71% +4.8%
≤30d 14 +35.2% +22.4% 86% 86% +19.9%
≤90d 37 +3.5% -6.4% 51% 51% -1.6%
all 37 +3.5% -6.4% 51% 51% -1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 51% -1.6%
10% -15.4% 46% -11.0%
15% -23.5% 41% -19.6%
20% -31.0% 35% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late +46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$13 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses19 / 18
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage59d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $36 $37 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $25 +$24 +93%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $22 −$19 -86%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $25 +$14 +55%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 23 $36 −$35 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $45 +$24 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $18 +$12 +69%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $18 +$12 +64%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $25 +$25 +101%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 +$29 +70%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $78 +$15 +19%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $41 +$9 +22%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $42 +$17 +40%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $73 +$29 +39%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $22 −$21 -94%
Will Mexico win on 2026-05-22? May 23 $17 +$4 +27%
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? May 22 $2 +$6 +262%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? May 09 $2 +$6 +291%
Will Fulham FC vs. AFC Bournemouth end in a draw? May 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 05 $9 $0 -5%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $4 −$3 -68%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $36 +$10 +28%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $35 −$34 -99%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? May 03 $4 −$2 -47%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $9 +$5 +55%
Exact Score: Manchester United FC 2 - 1 Liverpool FC? May 03 $3 $0 -12%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $44 +$46 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Apr 30 $7 −$3 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Apr 30 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Apr 30 $7 −$7 -97%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? Apr 30 $11 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Apr 30 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $39 −$36 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $37 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 57¢ $29 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 23h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $49 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $22 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $25 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $25 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $36 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $30 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $45 6d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $30 7d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $18 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $18 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 8d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $70 9d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $41 9d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $1 10d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $54 10d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $29 10d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 10d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $11 11d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 11d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $25 11d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $20 11d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 70¢ $37 11d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $38 11d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 11d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $59 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.63 · official $36.63 (match) · 78 history records