Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:05:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa66d…5f33 sports 80 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$17 (+3%) realized +$18 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%29W / 47L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day53.2pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$90
other 22% −$16
world 3% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -8.8% -17.5% 38% 37% +2.6%
≤30d 76 -8.8% -17.5% 38% 37% +2.6%
≤90d 76 -8.8% -17.5% 38% 37% +2.6%
all 76 -8.8% -17.5% 38% 37% +2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.5% 37% +2.6%
10% ← realistic here -25.4% 36% -7.3%
15% -32.6% 33% -16.2%
20% -39.2% 30% -24.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$5 · ×2.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$18
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses29 / 47
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions4
Markets (closed)76 / 80
History coverage2d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day53.2
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Over 40¢ 40¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$12 +62%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $20 +$31 +157%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$6 +118%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$11 +53%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +43%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $5 +$8 +170%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $5 +$19 +383%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 +$4 +45%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $10 +$26 +263%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $7 −$2 -34%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 −$5 -52%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $20 +$25 +124%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 16 $5 $0 -7%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 16 $10 +$6 +62%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$19 +188%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$7 +73%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 +$19 +95%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $3 +$3 +91%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $2 $0 +17%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 +$6 +121%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$23 +156%
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Uruguay? Jun 15 $3 +$8 +271%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 15 $12 −$10 -80%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $3 $0 -5%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 15 $12 −$12 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $2 +$1 +25%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 +$5 +99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 29m
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 31m
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 31m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $5 39m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 73¢ $32 59m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 79¢ $51 59m
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $11 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $31 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $20 3h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $5 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $20 4h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 44¢ $20 4h
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 5h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 6h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 6h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 6h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 6h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 6h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 6h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 6h
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 6h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Under 44¢ $5 6h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 27¢ $5 6h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $10 6h
Iraq vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 0¢ $0 7h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 99¢ $13 7h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $24 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.68 · official $18.68 (match) · 129 history records