Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:03:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A6 0xa66c…554e sports 109 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$21 (+1%) realized +$24 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate97%103W / 3L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day14.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$197now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$29
14 days+$23
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$24
other 16% −$4
tech 9% +$1
politics 8% +$5
finance 7% +$1
world 4% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 +4.2% -5.8% 98% 10% -7.2%
≤30d 106 +2.8% -7.0% 97% 10% -7.9%
≤90d 106 +2.8% -7.0% 97% 10% -7.9%
all 106 +2.8% -7.0% 97% 10% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 10% -7.9%
10% -15.9% 5% -16.7%
15% -24.0% 3% -24.7%
20% -31.4% 2% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$6 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.24 per $1 lost it wins $2.24
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$197
Realized+$24
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses103 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)106 / 109
History coverage8d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day14.6
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Darden Restaurants say "Quarter" 10+ times during earnings call? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $99 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Will the announcers say "Goal" 40+ times during the South Africa vs South Korea FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 98¢ 94¢ $101 $97 −$4 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ganchev/Genov vs. Fancutt/Rai: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 25 $54 +$1 +1%
Ganchev/Genov vs. Fancutt/Rai: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 25 $54 +$1 +1%
Ganchev/Genov vs. Fancutt/Rai: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 25 $54 +$1 +1%
Ganchev/Genov vs. Fancutt/Rai: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 25 $54 +$1 +1%
Ganchev/Genov vs. Fancutt/Rai: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $54 +$1 +1%
Jacob Shaffelburg: 3+ shots Jun 25 $19 $0 +1%
Will the announcers say "Comeback” or “Come Back" during the Czechia v Jun 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Czechia vs Mexico FIFA Wor Jun 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will the announcers say "Record" during the Czechia vs Mexico FIFA Wor Jun 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will SpaceX have exactly 11 launches in June 2026? Jun 25 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the announcers say "History" during the Switzerland vs Canada FIF Jun 25 $56 +$8 +14%
Julián Quiñones: 4+ shots Jun 25 $78 +$1 +1%
Will the game go to extra innings?: Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $10 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $100 +$5 +5%
Brahim Díaz: 1+ shots on target Jun 25 $6 $0 +1%
Indios de Mayaguez vs. Atleticos de San German Jun 25 $9 $0 +1%
1st 5 Innings Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 25 $10 $0 +1%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $25 $0 +1%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $25 $0 +1%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $25 $0 +1%
1st 5 Innings Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5) Jun 25 $10 $0 +1%
Azzedine Ounahi: 1+ shots Jun 25 $0 $0 +17%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $19 $0 +1%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 25 $15 $0 +1%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 25 $10 $0 +1%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $5 $0 +1%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 Jun 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will "AI / Artificial Intelligence" be said 5+ times during the next e Jun 24 $17 $0 +1%
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the Portugal vs Uzbekistan FIFA Jun 24 $1 $0 +1%
Bernardo Silva: 1+ assists Jun 24 $1 $0 +3%
Will Starmer say "Hate" or "Hatred" during the next PMQ? Jun 24 $7 $0 +2%
Will Starmer say "Record Funding" during the next PMQ? Jun 24 $7 $0 +1%
Will Starmer say "World Cup" during the next PMQ? Jun 24 $6 $0 +5%
Will Starmer say "Deep" or "Deeply" during the next PMQ? Jun 24 $7 $0 +1%
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the Portugal vs Uzbekistan F Jun 24 $10 $0 +2%
Alves vs. Taborda: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 24 $9 $0 +2%
Dev/Sinha vs. Sueoka/Tajima: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: shimmer (-3.5) vs Atrix Esports (+3.5) Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 11.5 Jun 24 $8 $0 +1%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) Jun 24 $1 $0 +1%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Will the game go to extra innings?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5 Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 Jun 24 $8 $0 +1%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Jun 24 $3 $0 +1%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will the game go to extra innings?: Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pi Jun 24 $4 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the announcers say "Goal" 40+ times during the South Africa vs So BUY Yes 98¢ $101 33m
Ganchev/Genov vs. Fancutt/Rai: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 99¢ $54 52m
Ganchev/Genov vs. Fancutt/Rai: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Under 99¢ $54 52m
Will Darden Restaurants say "Quarter" 10+ times during earnings call? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 1h
Jacob Shaffelburg: 3+ shots BUY Yes 99¢ $19 1h
Ganchev/Genov vs. Fancutt/Rai: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Under 99¢ $54 1h
Ganchev/Genov vs. Fancutt/Rai: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 99¢ $54 1h
Ganchev/Genov vs. Fancutt/Rai: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 99¢ $54 1h
Will the announcers say "Comeback” or “Come Back" during the Czechia v BUY Yes 99¢ $5 7h
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Czechia vs Mexico FIFA Wor BUY Yes 99¢ $5 7h
Will the announcers say "Record" during the Czechia vs Mexico FIFA Wor BUY Yes 99¢ $5 7h
Will SpaceX have exactly 11 launches in June 2026? BUY No 99¢ $100 8h
Julián Quiñones: 4+ shots BUY Yes 99¢ $78 9h
Will the announcers say "History" during the Switzerland vs Canada FIF BUY No 88¢ $56 9h
Will the game go to extra innings?: Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY No 99¢ $10 9h
1st 5 Innings Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5) BUY Athletics 99¢ $10 10h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $25 10h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 BUY Under 99¢ $25 10h
1st 5 Innings Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) BUY Athletics 99¢ $10 10h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 BUY Under 99¢ $25 10h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $100 11h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 BUY Under 99¢ $19 11h
Azzedine Ounahi: 1+ shots BUY Yes 85¢ $0 11h
Brahim Díaz: 1+ shots on target BUY No 99¢ $6 11h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 99¢ $15 11h
Indios de Mayaguez vs. Atleticos de San German BUY Indios de Mayaguez 99¢ $9 12h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 BUY Under 99¢ $5 13h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 BUY Under 99¢ $5 13h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 99¢ $10 15h
Will "AI / Artificial Intelligence" be said 5+ times during the next e BUY Yes 99¢ $17 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $196.90 · official $196.90 (match) · 216 history records