Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:12:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa66c…8460 other 126 markets active 0h ago coverage 255d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$87 (-2%) realized −$89 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate35%41W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$130now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$61
7 days−$13
14 days−$100
30 days−$193
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 29% −$43
other 25% −$3
sports 19% −$121
finance 15% −$36
crypto 6% −$20
economics 3% $0
world 1% −$7
tech 1% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +10.2% -0.3% 25% 25% -10.1%
≤30d 86 -5.5% -14.5% 40% 24% -15.4%
≤90d 94 -5.1% -14.1% 38% 23% -15.3%
all 116 -13.3% -21.5% 35% 20% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 20% -15.7%
10% -29.0% 14% -23.8%
15% -35.9% 11% -31.1%
20% -42.2% 6% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

255d coverage
Net worth$130
Realized−$89
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses41 / 75
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions9
Markets (closed)116 / 126
History coverage255d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $64 $69 +$5 (+8%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $27 $24 −$3 (-11%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+26%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $6 $10 +$3 (+55%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $5 $4 −$2 (-34%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-55%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? Jun 20 $59 −$6 -10%
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary ele Jun 20 $329 −$5 -1%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 20 $59 −$2 -4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $9 +$1 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-1 Jun 19 $5 +$12 +233%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $124 −$7 -5%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? Jun 19 $463 −$32 -7%
Will England win? Jun 19 $18 −$10 -54%
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary Jun 19 $82 −$5 -6%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +65%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $179 −$11 -6%
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Jun 18 $316 −$4 -1%
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 18 $5 $0 -4%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 −$2 -20%
Will Jim Priest be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? Jun 17 $1 $0 -4%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $5 +$8 +157%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 17 $1 $0 -19%
Iraq vs. Norway: Second half draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 +$3 +48%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 16 $17 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 16? Jun 16 $4 $0 -3%
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor Jun 16 $24 −$5 -20%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $4 $0 -1%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? Jun 16 $7 −$1 -12%
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $27 −$3 -11%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +44%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $50 +$54 +107%
Will South Korea reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $32 −$1 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 13 $33 −$6 -17%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $28 +$7 +27%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +2%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $31 −$3 -10%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $43 −$43 -99%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June? Jun 11 $82 −$3 -4%
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian Jun 11 $32 −$3 -10%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $24 $0 -0%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $30 −$5 -16%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $48 −$48 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $24 −$4 -17%
Will England win? Jun 07 $46 +$24 +53%
Will India win? Jun 07 $8 $0 +1%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $4 $0 -9%
T20 Blast: Somerset vs Glamorgan Jun 04 $3 −$3 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $8 −$5 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 04 $4 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 17¢ $5 16m
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? SELL No 54¢ $53 1h
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? BUY No 59¢ $59 1h
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary ele SELL Yes 75¢ $97 3h
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary ele BUY Yes 75¢ $98 3h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $57 6h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $59 6h
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary ele SELL Yes 74¢ $184 13h
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary ele BUY Yes 74¢ $111 13h
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary ele BUY Yes 75¢ $75 13h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $9 14h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $66 21h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $70 21h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? SELL No 84¢ $15 21h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? BUY No 84¢ $13 21h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? BUY No 84¢ $2 21h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? BUY No 84¢ $1 22h
Will England win? SELL Yes 21¢ $8 24h
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary SELL No 76¢ $45 34h
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary BUY No 77¢ $46 34h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 81¢ $8 35h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 37h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-1 BUY 29¢ $5 37h
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary SELL Yes 22¢ $32 37h
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary BUY Yes 24¢ $29 37h
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary BUY Yes 24¢ $7 38h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $100 44h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $106 44h
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary ele SELL No 30¢ $43 44h
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary ele BUY No 30¢ $44 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.76 · official $129.76 (match) · 471 history records