Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:01:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A6
0xa66c…cd67
world · 46 markets active 3h ago
0.0score
−$64,945 -20%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$76,804 · open +$24,026
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$64,991
Realized−$76,804
Unrealized+$24,026
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses9 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$861
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 46
History coverage585d
Avg bet$7,234
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 1 History 40 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$84,994
7 days−$34,436
14 days−$34,436
30 days−$34,436
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 63¢ 100¢ $40,965 $64,991 +$24,026 (+59%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 83¢ 0¢ $28,000 $0 −$28,000 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 66¢ 0¢ $3,010 $0 −$3,010 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - February 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $73 $0 −$73 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $3,041 −$3,010 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4,183 −$2,897 -69%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $28,143 −$28,000 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20,845 +$23,702 +114%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 13 $74,789 −$74,789 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $19,339 +$8,111 +42%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $49,988 +$42,446 +85%
Houthi strike on Israel by February 28? Feb 28 $300 −$254 -84%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $145 −$85 -59%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Feb 28 $404 −$13 -3%
Solana Up or Down - February 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Feb 20 $64 −$50 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Feb 20 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Feb 20 $34 +$18 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Feb 20 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Feb 20 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Feb 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Feb 20 $40 +$40 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Feb 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Feb 20 $73 −$73 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 20 $129 −$56 -44%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 19 $50 −$9 -18%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Feb 19 $429 −$5 -1%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 19 $120 +$9 +7%
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026? Feb 10 $795 −$634 -80%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 01 $10,039 −$1,283 -13%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 28 $28,756 −$25,347 -88%
Will Paxos win the USDH ticker? Sep 12 $1,224 −$813 -66%
Will Eric Adams win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 31 $7,343 −$6,615 -90%
Will Zohran Mamdani win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 10 $30 −$4 -13%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 10 $2,000 −$77 -4%
Strike on Israel's Dimonah nuclear base in June? Jun 23 $2,003 −$1,160 -58%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025? Jun 23 $1,870 −$560 -30%
Another U.S. strike on Fordow nuclear facility before July? Jun 23 $50 −$46 -92%
Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025? Jun 23 $56 +$4 +7%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Jun 23 $85 −$18 -21%
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June  23? Jun 23 $117 −$96 -82%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Jun 22 $110 −$7 -7%
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Sunday June  22? Jun 22 $11 −$5 -48%
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, R Senate, D House Nov 09 $20,466 −$16,217 -79%
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R House Nov 07 $11,346 +$11,120 +98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 38% −$35,353
other 35% +$24,129
politics 24% −$38,441
world 2% −$2,918
crypto 0% −$195
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 66¢ $3,041 3h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $40,123 3h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $1,297 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 15¢ $1,286 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 47¢ $4,183 5h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 36¢ $1,773 9h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $28,143 9h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $44,547 24h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $66 30h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $20,779 31h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $27,450 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 87¢ $998 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND W BUY 50¢ $51 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 BUY 32¢ $332 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY 37¢ $509 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY 45¢ $102 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $4,839 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $13,501 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 94¢ $74,789 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 57¢ $8,159 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 53¢ $41,829 5d
Houthi strike on Israel by February 28? SELL Yes 8¢ $46 105d
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $60 105d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $246 105d
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $145 105d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? SELL Yes 36¢ $145 105d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $404 105d
Houthi strike on Israel by February 28? BUY Yes 49¢ $300 105d
Solana Up or Down - February 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $24 113d
Solana Up or Down - February 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $14 113d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-41.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -18.4% -26.2% 43% 43% -25.1%
≤30d 7 -18.4% -26.2% 43% 43% -25.1%
≤90d 7 -18.4% -26.2% 43% 43% -25.1%
all 40 -35.6% -41.8% 22% 18% -33.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -41.8% 18% -33.6%
10% ← realistic here -47.3% 15% -40.0%
15% -52.4% 15% -45.8%
20% -57.1% 12% -51.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64,991.27 · official $64,991.27 (match) · 237 history records