Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:54:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A6 0xa665…cc14 world 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 461d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate63%12W / 7L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% +$5
other 19% $0
crypto 4% +$1
tech 2% $0
politics 2% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 9 +0.3% -9.2% 56% 0% -8.4%
≤90d 9 +0.3% -9.2% 56% 0% -8.4%
all 19 +1.1% -8.5% 63% 0% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 0% -8.4%
10% -17.3% 0% -17.2%
15% -25.3% 0% -25.2%
20% -32.6% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×6.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×12.05 per $1 lost it wins $12.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

461d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses12 / 7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)19 / 21
History coverage461d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 96¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $42 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $76 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $38 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $39 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $46 +$2 +4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $4 $0 -12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $34 +$3 +10%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $73 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $71 $0 +0%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Jun 26 $10 $0 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? May 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 18 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Apr 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 31 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 26 $13 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $2,600.00 again by March 31? Mar 23 $13 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his DOJ appearance on Frid Mar 20 $11 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $43 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $42 4h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $42 7h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $2 15h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $2 15h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $4 16h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $18 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $16 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $35 15d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $2 16d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $37 16d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $38 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $39 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $12 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $27 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $37 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $37 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $1 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $2 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $4 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 27¢ $11 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $41 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $41 19d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 20d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 20d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 20d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $0 20d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 88¢ $38 21d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 80¢ $34 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.98 · official $42.98 (match) · 60 history records