Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:46:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
A6 0xa664…21af crypto 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist
Total PnL +$153 (+4%) realized +$153 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%20W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$339
30 days−$339
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +37.2% +24.2% 42% 42% -10.1%
≤30d 31 +6.8% -3.4% 35% 35% -26.1%
≤90d 53 +31.1% +18.6% 38% 38% -8.2%
all 53 +31.1% +18.6% 38% 38% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.6% 38% -8.2%
10% +7.3% 30% -17.0%
15% -3.1% 28% -25.0%
20% -12.6% 26% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +45% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$56 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$153
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses20 / 33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage58d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 27 $224 +$133 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 27 $305 −$292 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 27 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 27 $21 +$175 +826%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 27 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 27 $88 +$131 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 27 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 27 $36 +$31 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 27 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 27 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 27 $51 +$13 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $187 −$98 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 19 $301 −$301 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $25 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 19 $137 +$90 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 19 $66 +$70 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$24 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$81 +383%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$10 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $37 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 07 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 07 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 01 $94 −$91 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 01 $309 −$309 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 01 $191 −$88 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 01 $541 +$444 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 01 $45 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 01 $298 +$206 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 01 $298 +$41 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 01 $30 −$28 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 01 $15 +$13 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 01 $99 +$17 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 01 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET May 01 $70 −$67 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Apr 30 $14 −$13 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Apr 30 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Apr 30 $33 −$31 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Apr 30 $11 +$156 +1461%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $224 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $88 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $89 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $89 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $98 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $100 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $100 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $101 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $25 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $102 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $35 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 151 history records