Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:15:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa664…f849 sports 592 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 18d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (178 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$19,439 (-13%) realized −$18,735 · open −$704
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate29%192W / 468L
Whale WR39%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$243per market
Trades / day178.3pace
Fees−$2,204est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$6,096now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 18d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$47,383
other 17% +$5,458
crypto 2% −$419
world 1% +$328
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (178 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 367 -81.3% -83.1% 8% 7% -72.6%
≤30d 660 -14.0% -22.1% 29% 28% -29.9%
≤90d 660 -14.0% -22.1% 29% 28% -29.9%
all 660 -14.0% -22.1% 29% 28% -29.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover178.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.1% 28% -29.9%
10% ← realistic here -29.6% 27% -36.6%
15% -36.4% 27% -42.7%
20% -42.6% 26% -48.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 39% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +72% → late -100% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$411 vs −$255 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$6,096
Realized−$18,735
Unrealized−$704
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses192 / 468
Whale WR (big bets)39%
Est. fees paid−$2,204
Open positions31
Markets (closed)660 / 592
History coverage18d ⚠
Avg bet$243
Trades / day178.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 660 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 32¢ 32¢ $800 $788 −$12 (-2%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $580 $605 +$25 (+4%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $300 $570 +$270 (+90%)
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Team Falcons 57¢ 56¢ $570 $565 −$5 (-1%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 7¢ 9¢ $420 $540 +$120 (+29%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $470 $285 −$185 (-39%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 57¢ 65¢ $230 $260 +$30 (+13%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $256 $257 +$1 (+0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 93¢ $178 $185 +$7 (+4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 49¢ 42¢ $196 $170 −$26 (-13%)
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? No 84¢ 85¢ $168 $170 +$2 (+1%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 10¢ 17¢ $100 $170 +$70 (+70%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Yes 58¢ 24¢ $348 $141 −$207 (-59%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $134 $139 +$4 (+3%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $180 $130 −$50 (-28%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes 94¢ 99¢ $118 $124 +$6 (+5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 31¢ 8¢ $494 $120 −$374 (-76%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 42¢ 50¢ $84 $101 +$17 (+20%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 53¢ 50¢ $106 $99 −$7 (-7%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 80¢ 98¢ $80 $98 +$18 (+23%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? No 99¢ 100¢ $85 $86 +$1 (+1%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $70 $85 +$15 (+21%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 32¢ 8¢ $320 $75 −$245 (-77%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds St. Louis Cardinals 47¢ 37¢ $93 $73 −$20 (-21%)
Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $71 $71 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 466 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Roland Garros ATP: Michael Zheng vs Dino Prizmic Jun 19 $160 −$160 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $92 −$92 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 19 $450 −$450 -100%
Cervia: Sandro Kopp vs Max Alcala Gurri Jun 19 $440 −$440 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 19 $390 −$390 -100%
Zagreb: Nerman Fatic vs Elmer Moeller Jun 19 $220 −$220 -100%
Istanbul: Andrej Nedic vs Mert Alkaya Jun 19 $188 −$188 -100%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs BetBoom Team - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $717 −$717 -100%
Geneva Open: Raphael Collignon vs Casper Ruud Jun 19 $260 −$260 -100%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $2,298 −$2,298 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B Jun 19 $45 −$45 -100%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Jil Teichmann vs Petra Marcinko Jun 19 $330 −$330 -100%
Valorant: FunPlus Phoenix vs All Gamers (BO3) - Esports World Cup Chin Jun 19 $200 −$200 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs NRG (BO5) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs Jun 19 $235 −$235 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 19 $175 −$175 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 19 $0 −$200 -269810%
Parma: Federica Urgesi vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 19 $240 −$240 -100%
Counter-Strike: Hashiras vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO3) - Thunderp Jun 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: ROSE vs YFP Gaming (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Jun 19 $175 −$175 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? Jun 19 $2,001 −$2,001 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul Jun 19 $280 −$280 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sangal ALTERS vs INFURITY Gaming (BO3) - United21 Grou Jun 19 $64 −$64 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 19 $380 −$380 -100%
Valorant: SaD Esports vs YFP Gaming (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Jun 19 $240 −$240 -100%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challenge Jun 19 $380 −$380 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs GamerLegion (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A Jun 19 $125 −$125 -100%
Vicenza: Mika Brunold vs Massimo Giunta Jun 19 $370 −$370 -100%
Tunis: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Daniil Glinka Jun 19 $440 −$440 -100%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-05-23? Jun 19 $200 −$200 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Martin Landaluce Jun 19 $410 −$410 -100%
Cordoba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Miguel Tobon Jun 19 $330 −$330 -100%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs ex-HEROIC - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $230 −$230 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $1,660 −$1,660 -100%
Will FK Pari Nizhnii Novgorod win on 2026-05-11? Jun 19 $145 −$145 -100%
Paris: Talia Gibson vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich Jun 19 $44 −$44 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B Jun 19 $340 −$340 -100%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Fiona Ferro vs Danka Kovinic Jun 19 $110 −$110 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $160 −$160 -100%
Birmingham: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Linda Klimovicova Jun 19 $410 −$410 -100%
KHL: Lokomotiv Yaroslavl vs. Ak Bars Kazan Jun 19 $243 −$559 -230%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Falcons Force (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Gr Jun 19 $56 −$56 -100%
Bengaluru 3: Sasikumar Mukund vs Taiyo Yamanaka Jun 19 $360 −$360 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs Jun 19 $140 −$140 -100%
Bengaluru 2: Christopher Papa vs Philip Sekulic Jun 19 $24 −$84 -350%
CB Murcia vs. Unicaja Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Parma: Priscilla Hon vs Susan Bandecchi Jun 19 $170 −$170 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 19 $210 −$210 -100%
CSKA Moscow vs. Lokomotiv Kuban Jun 19 $190 −$190 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs M80 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $190 −$190 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 32¢ $816 54m
Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 1¢ $73 1h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 57¢ $577 2h
Nottingham Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Emma Navarro BUY Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 34¢ $42 3h
Nottingham Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Emma Navarro BUY Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 34¢ $5 3h
Nottingham Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Emma Navarro BUY Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 34¢ $3 3h
Nottingham Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Emma Navarro BUY Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 34¢ $5 4h
Nottingham Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Emma Navarro BUY Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 34¢ $63 4h
Nottingham Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Emma Navarro BUY Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 34¢ $52 4h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $365 16h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $4 17h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $2 17h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $45 17h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $22 17h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $11 17h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $226 17h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $113 17h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $1 17h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $11 17h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $59 17h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Under 53¢ $537 19h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 37¢ $754 22h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $79 23h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 23h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $64 23h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 24h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 24h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $59 24h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $47 24h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 26¢ $520 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,096.21 · official $6,096.31 (match) · 3500 history records