Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:06:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A6 0xa662…4823 sports 293 markets active 2h ago coverage 241d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$282 (+4%) realized +$282 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%145W / 143L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$130now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days+$7
14 days+$40
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$143
other 12% +$157
crypto 8% +$11
politics 2% −$82
weather 0% $0
world 0% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -8.2% -16.9% 40% 40% +5.0%
≤30d 33 -2.2% -11.5% 36% 36% -4.5%
≤90d 152 +15.6% +4.6% 51% 50% +0.7%
all 288 +5.6% -4.5% 50% 47% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 47% -6.3%
10% -13.6% 41% -15.3%
15% -22.0% 40% -23.5%
20% -29.6% 38% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$23 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

241d coverage
Net worth$130
Realized+$282
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses145 / 143
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions5
Markets (closed)288 / 293
History coverage241d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 288 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $46 $48 +$2 (+4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $25 $20 −$5 (-20%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+22%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $8 +$11 +131%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $13 +$17 +128%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 19 $11 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 +$24 +443%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $16 +$14 +84%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $19 +$11 +54%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $15 −$14 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $18 −$17 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $18 −$18 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $9 +$10 +112%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $31 +$49 +156%
Will England win? Jun 07 $18 +$22 +123%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 03 $6 −$6 -98%
Mensik vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 36.5 Jun 02 $30 +$43 +142%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $11 +$19 +163%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 31 $9 −$9 -100%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Punjab Kings May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 31 $14 −$14 -100%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 31 $12 −$12 -100%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 31 $13 −$13 -100%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Chennai Super Kings May 31 $14 −$14 -100%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 31 $18 −$18 -100%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 31 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Sunrisers Hyderabad win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 31 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the May 31 $86 −$86 -100%
Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 31 $32 +$126 +390%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $34 +$35 +102%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 27 $11 +$9 +90%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $6 +$8 +133%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $10 +$10 +92%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $15 +$20 +134%
Will Bangladesh win? May 19 $10 +$34 +330%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $16 +$19 +118%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals May 17 $14 +$16 +112%
Will Punjab Kings win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 17 $20 −$15 -74%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 16 $10 +$15 +152%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 14 $10 +$2 +21%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 12 $24 +$32 +133%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals May 11 $32 +$19 +58%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants May 11 $10 +$11 +109%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Banga May 08 $10 +$9 +93%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Kolkata Knight Riders May 03 $10 +$19 +188%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Delhi Capitals May 01 $21 +$25 +116%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 28 $17 +$27 +158%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $47 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $39 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 17¢ $5 25h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 28h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $5 37h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 97¢ $19 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 42¢ $8 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $25 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $13 5d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 5d
Will the match end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $11 8d
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 73¢ $29 11d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 11d
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 11d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 13d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 14d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $18 14d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $19 14d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $18 14d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $20 14d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $9 15d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 40¢ $20 18d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 37¢ $11 19d
Will England win? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 20d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 22d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 54¢ $16 23d
Will England win? BUY Yes 39¢ $8 23d
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 28¢ $6 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.99 · official $130.60 (match) · 829 history records