Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T03:35:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A6 0xa661…ef0e crypto 41 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,354 (-36%) realized −$4,897 · open −$457
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%10W / 27L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$361per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$656now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,302
7 days−$1,518
14 days−$643
30 days−$4,368
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$4,700
finance 22% +$256
crypto 12% +$153
sports 9% +$39
world 4% −$540
tech 0% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -36.7% -42.7% 29% 29% -73.4%
≤30d 37 +10.2% -0.3% 27% 27% -43.9%
≤90d 37 +10.2% -0.3% 27% 27% -43.9%
all 37 +10.2% -0.3% 27% 27% -43.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.3% 27% -43.9%
10% -9.8% 24% -49.2%
15% -18.5% 22% -54.2%
20% -26.5% 22% -58.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +68% → late -44% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$390 vs −$306 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$656
Realized−$4,897
Unrealized−$457
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses10 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions4
Markets (closed)37 / 41
History coverage30d
Avg bet$361
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Morocco? No 51¢ 100¢ $255 $500 +$245 (+96%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Netherlands 59¢ 50¢ $138 $118 −$19 (-14%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (LOW) in June? Yes 40¢ 2¢ $600 $38 −$563 (-94%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $120 $0 −$120 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Jun 30 $118 +$252 +214%
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 30 $204 +$58 +29%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $613 −$611 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $1,019 −$1,002 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $103 −$101 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $56 −$55 -98%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $247 +$874 +354%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $547 −$540 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $466 +$284 +61%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $23 −$22 -98%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $2,020 −$2,017 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 8? Jun 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 07 $44 −$42 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 07 $471 −$444 -94%
Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 07 $7 −$7 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 06 $229 −$229 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 8? Jun 06 $96 −$93 -98%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $1,167 −$1,167 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $690 +$678 +98%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $1,250 +$1,225 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 02 $109 +$84 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 1? Jun 02 $240 +$299 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 01 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 01 $52 −$50 -96%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $1,023 −$1,022 -100%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $33 −$33 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $203 −$203 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 31 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 31 $80 −$76 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 31 $109 −$6 -5%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 1? May 31 $193 −$189 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 31 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 31 $5 +$145 +2713%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 31 $5 +$1 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance SELL Netherlands 50¢ $115 17m
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance SELL Netherlands 50¢ $283 18m
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance SELL Netherlands 50¢ $5 18m
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance SELL Netherlands 50¢ $247 18m
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance SELL Netherlands 50¢ $28 18m
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance SELL Netherlands 50¢ $5 18m
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance SELL Netherlands 50¢ $100 18m
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance SELL Netherlands 50¢ $33 18m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 74¢ $370 52m
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Morocco? BUY No 51¢ $76 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Morocco? BUY No 51¢ $76 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Morocco? BUY No 51¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Morocco? BUY No 51¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Morocco? BUY No 51¢ $18 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Morocco? BUY No 51¢ $61 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Morocco? BUY No 51¢ $17 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 23¢ $118 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 24¢ $123 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 42¢ $262 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Netherlands 57¢ $101 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $204 2h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Netherlands 59¢ $1,012 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $103 13h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 17¢ $510 20h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 43¢ $1,019 24h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 17¢ $61 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 46¢ $103 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 22¢ $45 5d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 22¢ $212 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $655.57 · official $650.90 (match) · 336 history records