Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:51:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa661…9d2e weather 787 markets active 2h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$3 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate86%662W / 112L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day14.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$127now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$84
14 days−$53
30 days−$93
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -9.3% -17.9% 82% 16% -18.5%
≤30d 371 -2.2% -11.5% 89% 26% -11.8%
≤90d 774 -0.6% -10.0% 86% 31% -9.9%
all 774 -0.6% -10.0% 86% 31% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 31% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 7% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 5% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$127
Realized+$3
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses662 / 112
Open positions13
Markets (closed)774 / 787
History coverage66d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 774 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 17? No 90¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on June 17? No 92¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 17? No 92¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? No 92¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 17? No 92¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 18? No 92¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 18? No 92¢ 98¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 19? No 92¢ 92¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 19? No 90¢ 87¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 19? No 91¢ 88¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 18? No 91¢ 70¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-23%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 18? No 91¢ 67¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-27%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 18? No 90¢ 61¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 −$10 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 15 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on June 14? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on June 14? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 14? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 19? BUY No 92¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 19? BUY No 90¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 91¢ $10 8h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $10 10h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $10 18h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $10 18h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $10 18h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju BUY No 92¢ $10 19h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $10 21h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $10 25h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $10 29h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 18? BUY No 90¢ $10 32h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $10 34h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $10 38h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 89¢ $10 42h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 91¢ $10 44h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? SELL No 33¢ $0 46h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? SELL No 33¢ $7 46h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? SELL No 33¢ $3 46h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? BUY No 91¢ $10 47h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $10 47h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 91¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 16? BUY No 91¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 61¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.54 · official $126.65 (match) · 1694 history records