Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:54:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A6
0xa65c…509d
sports · 309 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,037 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,257 · open −$48
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$991
Realized−$1,257
Unrealized−$48
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses150 / 149
Est. fees paid−$479
Open positions10
Markets (closed)299 / 309
History coverage14d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day53.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 10 History 299 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$709
7 days+$823
14 days−$1,257
30 days−$1,257
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Under 52¢ 53¢ $200 $204 +$4 (+2%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Over 52¢ 52¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 52¢ 52¢ $188 $187 −$2 (-1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Under 44¢ 50¢ $100 $114 +$14 (+14%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 51¢ 49¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-7%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 47¢ 42¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? No 60¢ 2¢ $50 $1 −$49 (-97%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Over 52¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Chicago Cubs 43¢ 0¢ $600 $0 −$600 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Sinners 48¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 B8 40¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5 Over 61¢ 0¢ $199 $0 −$199 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Over 50¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? No 51¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Under 50¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Will KaBuM! IDL win CD 2026 Split 1? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $54 $0 −$54 (-100%)
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 15.5 Yes 49¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-25.5) Spurs 7¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Over 51¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Card) Santiago Luna 46¢ 0¢ $110 $0 −$110 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Marta Kostyuk 4¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Frances Tiafoe 49¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 14 $102 −$7 -7%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$17 -16%
Spread: Knicks (-16.5) Jun 14 $150 +$9 +6%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 14 $101 +$80 +79%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $202 −$13 -6%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $50 +$14 +27%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 14 $101 −$100 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -97%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $101 +$95 +93%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $102 +$126 +124%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $204 +$284 +140%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 13 $102 +$176 +172%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $101 +$24 +24%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $202 +$92 +46%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $101 +$65 +65%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $100 +$10 +10%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $151 +$54 +36%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$3 +55%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $50 +$24 +48%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $203 +$214 +105%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $152 −$150 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $50 +$20 +40%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $81 +$15 +18%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $202 +$101 +50%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $100 +$15 +14%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $51 +$28 +55%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $153 +$264 +172%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $101 +$77 +76%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $76 +$42 +56%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $152 +$142 +93%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $101 +$91 +90%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $201 +$37 +18%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $202 −$200 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $203 +$168 +83%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $101 +$33 +32%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $154 −$11 -7%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $153 −$150 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 218.5 Jun 11 $101 +$77 +76%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) Jun 11 $19 +$4 +23%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $203 +$189 +93%
Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-7.5) Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $101 +$65 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 91% −$713
other 4% −$367
politics 2% +$98
world 2% −$156
crypto 1% −$166
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $46 9m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $50 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Golden Knights 47¢ $0 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Golden Knights 47¢ $0 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Golden Knights 47¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $50 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Golden Knights 47¢ $0 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Golden Knights 47¢ $0 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Golden Knights 47¢ $0 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Golden Knights 47¢ $0 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Golden Knights 47¢ $0 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Golden Knights 47¢ $0 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Golden Knights 47¢ $1 2h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Golden Knights 47¢ $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $50 2h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Golden Knights 47¢ $0 2h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Golden Knights 47¢ $0 2h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Golden Knights 47¢ $0 2h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Golden Knights 47¢ $0 2h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Golden Knights 47¢ $0 2h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Golden Knights 47¢ $0 2h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Golden Knights 47¢ $0 3h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Golden Knights 47¢ $0 3h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Golden Knights 47¢ $0 3h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Golden Knights 47¢ $0 3h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Golden Knights 47¢ $0 4h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Golden Knights 47¢ $0 4h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Golden Knights 47¢ $0 4h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Golden Knights 47¢ $0 4h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Golden Knights 47¢ $2 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 121 -2.3% -11.6% 55% 52% -3.9%
≤30d 299 -5.3% -14.3% 50% 45% -13.0%
≤90d 299 -5.3% -14.3% 50% 45% -13.0%
all 299 -5.3% -14.3% 50% 45% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover53.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.3% 45% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -22.5% 43% -21.4%
15% -30.0% 40% -29.0%
20% -36.9% 34% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $990.77 · official $990.77 (match) · 854 history records