Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:34:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa65b…a0a9 other 171 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$59 (-0%) realized −$59 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%15W / 155L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$22
14 days−$37
30 days−$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$32
politics 27% −$27
sports 16% −$11
crypto 12% +$5
world 5% −$12
economics 4% −$2
culture 3% −$4
tech 2% −$5
finance 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -0.9% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 74 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 159 -0.5% -10.0% 6% 0% -9.9%
all 170 -0.5% -10.0% 9% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses15 / 155
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)170 / 171
History coverage103d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 170 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 20 $382 −$3 -1%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $409 −$2 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 20 $139 −$4 -2%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 20 $163 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $69 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 19 $106 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 18 $116 −$2 -2%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $54 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $462 −$1 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 17 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $246 −$1 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $44 −$1 -1%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $45 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 16 $61 −$1 -2%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $52 −$2 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $206 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $122 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 14 $59 −$1 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 14 $99 −$2 -2%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $162 −$1 -1%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $49 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 13 $53 −$1 -3%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 13 $46 −$1 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $144 −$2 -1%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $50 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $108 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $278 $0 -0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 11 $96 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $45 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $836 −$3 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $214 −$1 -0%
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $29 $0 -1%
Will Ro Khanna be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Jun 09 $29 −$3 -9%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $115 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $58 $0 -1%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $49 $0 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 07 $59 −$1 -2%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $162 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $85 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $303 −$1 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $103 −$1 -1%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $98 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $121 $0 -0%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $19 $0 -1%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 03 $99 −$1 -1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $61 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $234 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 02 $55 −$1 -1%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 02 $106 −$2 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $309 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $70 1h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $73 1h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $15 5h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $52 5h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $6 5h
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $68 6h
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $68 10h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $27 11h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $27 18h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $63 18h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $62 26h
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $69 27h
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $69 35h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $70 35h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $1 41h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $40 41h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $29 41h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 92¢ $62 42h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $66 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $66 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $67 2d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $36 2d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $36 2d
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $45 2d
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $45 3d
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $53 3d
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $54 3d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $50 3d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $50 3d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.66 · official $69.66 (match) · 761 history records