Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:09:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A6 0xa65a…3860 crypto 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 612d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate73%24W / 9L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$232per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$116now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 35% −$3
other 34% −$3
sports 19% −$2
crypto 10% +$1
tech 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 2 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 6 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 33 +0.4% -9.2% 73% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -9.6%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

612d coverage
Net worth$116
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses24 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)33 / 36
History coverage612d
Avg bet$232
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Will Solana reach $140 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $33 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Will Solana reach $95 on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $27 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will XRP dip to $1.25 on May 16? Jun 27 $44 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in May? Jun 27 $72 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? May 16 $116 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Apr 22 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 18? Apr 22 $29 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 22 $60 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $160 and $170 on February 2? Mar 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in January? Mar 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $150 January 26-1? Mar 17 $17 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? Mar 17 $38 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 January 26-1? Mar 17 $48 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026? Feb 01 $51 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De Jan 22 $56 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? Jan 22 $60 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 30? Dec 23 $1 $0 +10%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $180 on December 2? Dec 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $90 on December 2? Dec 23 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on December 1? Dec 23 $68 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? Nov 30 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in September? Nov 30 $64 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in August? Sep 29 $25 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in July? Aug 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jul 18 $69 $0 +0%
Will another party win the most seats in the next German election? Jan 19 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 09 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 12 $65 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro be D-nom for VP on Election Day? Oct 24 $95 $0 -0%
Neither a Democrat nor a Republican wins popular vote? Oct 24 $1,350 −$1 -0%
Will 'Joker 2' gross most in 2024? Oct 24 $1,352 −$1 -0%
Wolverhampton Wanderers win the Premier League? Oct 24 $1,448 −$1 -0%
Will 'Dune: Part 2' gross most in 2024? Oct 24 $1,450 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama be D-nom for VP on Election Day? Oct 23 $1,451 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $140 in June? BUY No 100¢ $33 1h
Will Solana reach $95 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $27 1h
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $57 1h
Will Solana dip to $30 in May? BUY No 100¢ $72 42d
Will XRP dip to $1.25 on May 16? BUY No 100¢ $44 42d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $116 66d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 102d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $29 102d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $60 102d
Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 January 26-1? BUY No 100¢ $48 146d
Will the price of Solana be between $160 and $170 on February 2? BUY No 100¢ $2 146d
Will Solana reach $150 January 26-1? BUY No 100¢ $17 146d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $15 156d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 156d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in January? BUY No 100¢ $11 156d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? BUY No 100¢ $38 156d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De BUY No 100¢ $56 186d
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 186d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on December 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $68 208d
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 30? BUY Up 91¢ $1 208d
Will the price of Solana be greater than $180 on December 2? BUY No 100¢ $12 208d
Will the price of Solana be less than $90 on December 2? BUY No 100¢ $35 208d
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? BUY No 100¢ $13 271d
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in September? BUY No 100¢ $64 271d
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in August? BUY No 100¢ $25 305d
Will Solana dip to $80 in July? BUY No 100¢ $13 343d
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $69 501d
Will another party win the most seats in the next German election? SELL No 100¢ $67 523d
Will another party win the most seats in the next German election? BUY No 100¢ $67 534d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $16 534d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.26 · official $116.26 (match) · 73 history records