Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:10:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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A6 0xa658…f93e sports 1512 markets active 1h ago coverage 144d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 144d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$359 (+1%) realized +$369 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate70%1165W / 492L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Fees−$171est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 144d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$710
crypto 27% −$262
other 5% +$33
world 0% +$6
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 261 -63.3% -66.8% 27% 23% -69.8%
≤30d 562 -31.2% -37.7% 49% 44% -37.9%
≤90d 1431 -12.1% -20.5% 69% 43% -21.3%
all 1657 -10.4% -19.0% 70% 45% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 45% -19.6%
10% -26.7% 27% -27.3%
15% -33.8% 13% -34.4%
20% -40.3% 7% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$23 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$369
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses1165 / 492
Est. fees paid−$171
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1657 / 1512
History coverage144d ⚠
Avg bet$26
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1657 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 48¢ $30 $21 −$9 (-29%)
Altcoin market cap dip to $150B before 2027? No 18¢ 44¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+144%)
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 17¢ 6¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-64%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 18¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 414 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - January 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 20, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 22, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 7, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 6, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 24, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 31, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $35 −$35 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 10, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 5, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 3, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 3, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 31, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $90 −$90 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 31, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 3, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $48 −$48 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 26, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 29, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 31, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 1, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $90 −$90 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 9, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 25, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 18, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 20, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 19, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 19, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $35 −$35 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 29, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $120 −$120 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 29, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 2, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $12 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $11 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $7 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $14 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $11 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $11 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $11 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $11 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $11 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $25 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $14 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $11 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $11 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $11 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.38 · official $25.38 (match) · 3500 history records