Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:01:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa657…1b1f world 149 markets active 5h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$156 (-3%) realized −$159 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate40%58W / 88L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$15
14 days+$8
30 days−$158
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$59
crypto 16% −$21
other 11% +$19
sports 8% −$101
finance 7% −$39
tech 5% +$13
politics 3% −$22
weather 1% −$11
culture 1% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +6.2% -3.9% 56% 25% -7.3%
≤30d 44 -7.4% -16.2% 39% 14% -14.4%
≤90d 146 -5.5% -14.5% 40% 23% -13.9%
all 146 -5.5% -14.5% 40% 23% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 23% -13.9%
10% -22.7% 16% -22.2%
15% -30.2% 10% -29.7%
20% -37.0% 7% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$159
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses58 / 88
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)146 / 149
History coverage91d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 34¢ 42¢ $14 $17 +$3 (+22%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 62¢ 62¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 15-21? No 50¢ 32¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 16 $10 −$2 -21%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $2 +$3 +142%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $151 $0 +0%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 14 $7 −$4 -52%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $34 −$4 -12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $19 −$4 -20%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $19 +$2 +8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $97 +$4 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? Jun 11 $14 +$8 +54%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $5 $0 -4%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $14 +$2 +14%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 11 $46 +$4 +10%
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Jun 10 $151 +$10 +6%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 10 $19 −$9 -48%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 10 $19 +$5 +27%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 07 $31 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 07 $5 −$2 -32%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? Jun 05 $11 −$1 -10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 04 $41 −$4 -11%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 03 $10 $0 -5%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 02 $32 +$13 +43%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 31 $403 −$32 -8%
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi May 31 $90 −$17 -19%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 30 $125 +$13 +10%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m? May 30 $34 +$10 +30%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 28 $35 −$15 -44%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 27 $270 −$11 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $90 −$4 -4%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 26 $128 +$4 +3%
Flyers vs. Penguins May 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? May 26 $18 −$14 -79%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 26 $90 +$5 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 25 $264 +$7 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 25 $180 −$38 -21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 24 $138 +$6 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 23 $70 −$32 -46%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 23 $34 −$1 -2%
Ebola case in the US by June 30? May 23 $14 −$2 -17%
Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31? May 22 $14 −$9 -66%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30? May 21 $90 −$2 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 20 $69 −$17 -24%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 20 $35 −$10 -27%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 18 $9 $0 -5%
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? May 18 $15 −$1 -7%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $13 +$5 +35%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 15 $20 +$3 +14%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 01 $18 +$8 +47%
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? Apr 25 $65 +$3 +4%
Named storm forms before hurricane season? Apr 24 $48 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 34¢ $14 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 15-21? SELL No 50¢ $4 9h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 15-21? BUY No 50¢ $5 13h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $14 22h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $6 23h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 35h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 24¢ $2 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 26¢ $2 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 5¢ $5 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $9 2d
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 65¢ $22 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 60¢ $9 2d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 55¢ $19 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 42¢ $15 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 43¢ $0 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 64¢ $20 3d
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $7 4d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $19 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $9 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $19 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $7 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $10 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $9 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $7 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? SELL No 64¢ $22 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY No 40¢ $14 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $4 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.16 · official $31.04 (match) · 478 history records