Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:03:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa657…9572 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6 (-54%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -79% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -81% what you keep after slip
Net edge-81%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%1W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$4
crypto 18% −$2
world 9% +$1
tech 9% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-81.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -79.4% -81.4% 12% 12% -81.2%
≤30d 8 -79.4% -81.4% 12% 12% -81.2%
≤90d 8 -79.4% -81.4% 12% 12% -81.2%
all 8 -79.4% -81.4% 12% 12% -81.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -81.4% 12% -81.2%
10% -83.2% 12% -83.0%
15% -84.8% 12% -84.6%
20% -86.3% 12% -86.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -79% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -79% · $-wt -79% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses1 / 7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)8 / 11
History coverage9d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +65%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 60¢ $1 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 40h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY No 79¢ $1 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.97 · official $2.97 (match) · 12 history records