Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:47:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A6 0xa655…55ed crypto 1454 markets active 0h ago coverage 65d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 64d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$145 (-7%) realized −$144 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate43%633W / 853L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day47.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39
7 days−$37
14 days−$26
30 days−$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$230
other 1% +$2
sports 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 156 -27.3% -34.2% 40% 38% -28.2%
≤30d 530 -12.8% -21.1% 44% 43% -20.7%
≤90d 1486 -15.5% -23.6% 43% 40% -21.1%
all 1486 -15.5% -23.6% 43% 40% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.6% 40% -21.1%
10% ← realistic here -30.9% 37% -28.7%
15% -37.6% 34% -35.6%
20% -43.7% 29% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$144
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses633 / 853
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1486 / 1454
History coverage65d ⚠
Avg bet$1
Trades / day47.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1486 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Real Madrid CF vs. Girona FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-04-10? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -130%
Will Paris FC win on 2026-04-10? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 1AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 +$1 +65%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $1 21h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 58¢ $2 21h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $1 21h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $0 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.07 (match) · 3500 history records