Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:55:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A6
0xa655…9e3f
sports · 50 markets active 2h ago
4.0score
+$825 +12%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$825 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Net worth$499
Realized+$825
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses33 / 14
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)47 / 50
History coverage242d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 3 History 47 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $205 $204 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 81¢ 82¢ $145 $147 +$2 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Up $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 07 $3 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 07 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2026-04-02? Apr 06 $16 −$6 -35%
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Apr 02 $198 −$100 -51%
LoL: LYON vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group B Apr 02 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs PSG Talon (BO1) Apr 02 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A Apr 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 02 $10 $0 -0%
Nuggets vs. Suns Apr 02 $11 +$3 +26%
Will Gen.G win LoL Worlds 2025? Apr 02 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Fnatic (BO3) Apr 02 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 25 $100 +$37 +37%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 22 $100 +$25 +25%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO1) Mar 18 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Mar 18 $110 −$110 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group B Mar 18 $50 +$6 +11%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 16 $543 +$134 +25%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 16 $11 +$1 +12%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Mar 04 $16 $0 +2%
Will Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the 2026 Costa Rican preside Feb 02 $100 +$10 +10%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 31, 2026 (ET)? Feb 02 $200 +$15 +7%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 30 $386 +$14 +4%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-01-06? Jan 07 $160 +$129 +81%
Lighter Airdrop on December 29? Jan 04 $200 +$22 +11%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $151 +$41 +27%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 02 $30 +$184 +614%
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 02 $200 +$44 +22%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 31 $60 +$49 +81%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) Oct 30 $102 +$26 +25%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) Oct 30 $479 +$142 +30%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) Oct 29 $147 +$43 +30%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Oct 29 $2 $0 -21%
LoL: 100 Thieves vs T1 (BO3) Oct 26 $100 +$11 +11%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) Oct 26 $205 +$12 +6%
LoL: T1 vs Movistar KOI (BO3) Oct 26 $1,000 +$42 +4%
LoL: Gen.G vs Top Esports (BO3) Oct 23 $100 +$26 +26%
LoL: G2 Esports vs FlyQuest (BO3) Oct 23 $20 +$16 +82%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO3) Oct 22 $150 +$47 +32%
LoL: 100 Thieves vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO1) Oct 18 $150 +$22 +15%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) Oct 17 $230 +$98 +42%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Top Esports (BO3) Oct 17 $100 +$41 +41%
LoL: PSG Talon vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO1) Oct 16 $18 +$3 +18%
LoL: FlyQuest vs T1 (BO1) Oct 16 $50 +$15 +29%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Fnatic (BO1) Oct 16 $200 +$50 +25%
LoL: Top Esports vs 100 Thieves (BO1) Oct 16 $150 +$42 +28%
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) Oct 15 $50 +$25 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 71% +$804
other 16% +$86
politics 8% +$24
world 6% −$84
crypto 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $106 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $45 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 53¢ $19 32h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up $5 37d
Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2026-04-02? BUY Yes $5 72d
Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2026-04-02? SELL Yes 25¢ $5 72d
Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2026-04-02? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 72d
Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2026-04-02? SELL Yes 29¢ $6 72d
Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2026-04-02? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 72d
Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2026-04-02? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 72d
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $5 72d
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $5 72d
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $0 72d
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $5 72d
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $5 72d
Nuggets vs. Suns BUY Nuggets 84¢ $5 80d
Nuggets vs. Suns BUY Nuggets 76¢ $6 80d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 73¢ $100 83d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 80¢ $100 84d
LoL: LYON vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group B BUY LYON $3 85d
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A BUY BNK FEARX 83¢ $100 85d
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group B BUY Gen.G 90¢ $50 88d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $50 89d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -4.6% -13.7% 0% 0% -13.7%
≤30d 1 -4.6% -13.7% 0% 0% -13.7%
≤90d 19 -40.5% -46.2% 32% 32% -30.2%
all 47 +12.0% +1.3% 70% 57% +2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.3% 57% +2.4%
10% -8.4% 43% -7.4%
15% -17.2% 17% -16.3%
20% -25.4% 11% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $499.14 · official $499.16 (match) · 135 history records