Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:02:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa653…444e other 47 markets active 3d ago coverage 190d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$303 (-15%) realized −$303 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%8W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$167
14 days−$167
30 days−$169
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$203
sports 25% −$353
crypto 9% −$113
world 8% −$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)+16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -38.6% -44.5% 8% 8% -30.0%
≤30d 14 -43.0% -48.4% 7% 7% -30.2%
≤90d 32 -60.6% -64.3% 3% 3% -52.8%
all 47 +29.1% +16.8% 17% 17% -29.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.8% 17% -29.8%
10% +5.6% 15% -36.6%
15% -4.6% 15% -42.7%
20% -13.9% 11% -48.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +112% → late -50% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$23 · ×3.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

190d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$303
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses8 / 39
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage190d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $272 −$26 -9%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $94 −$37 -40%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $26 −$5 -20%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $41 $0 -1%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $51 −$4 -8%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 −$21 -41%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $30 −$5 -16%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $50 +$53 +106%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $92 −$47 -52%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $51 −$7 -14%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Apr 12 $41 −$41 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Atlanta Braves Apr 12 $40 −$39 -98%
Will Texas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 24 $25 −$18 -70%
Will Michigan State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 24 $44 −$3 -6%
Will Iowa win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 24 $20 −$5 -25%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 24 $100 −$8 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Mar 24 $34 −$13 -38%
Will High Point win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 22 $10 −$10 -100%
High Point Panthers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks Mar 22 $37 −$22 -60%
Will Trump attend UFC 323? Mar 22 $46 −$46 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 31, 5PM ET Mar 22 $62 −$62 -100%
Spread: Bills (-3.5) Mar 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Rams vs. Panthers Mar 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Bills vs. Broncos Mar 22 $157 −$157 -100%
Lighter Airdrop on December 25? Mar 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Broncos vs. Chiefs Mar 22 $16 −$12 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Mar 22 $9 −$5 -55%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 23 $50 −$28 -55%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 23 $110 −$41 -37%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 21 $54 +$12 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 21 $30 −$21 -71%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Dec 31 $10 +$308 +3084%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Dec 31 $9 +$122 +1385%
Bears vs. 49ers Dec 29 $56 −$6 -10%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before 2026? Dec 29 $20 −$11 -56%
Eagles vs. Bills Dec 28 $25 +$23 +92%
Cardinals vs. Bengals Dec 28 $18 +$18 +100%
Lighter Airdrop on December 28? Dec 27 $5 +$2 +37%
Lighter Airdrop on December 31? Dec 26 $32 +$16 +48%
Lighter Airdrop on December 26? Dec 26 $5 −$4 -75%
Lighter Airdrop on December 27? Dec 25 $6 −$2 -38%
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 22? Dec 07 $58 −$21 -36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $30 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $30 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $34 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $36 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $21 4d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $41 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $48 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $97 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $107 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $54 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 25¢ $53 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $59 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $29 4d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 5¢ $30 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $58 4d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 4d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $26 4d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $25 4d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $9 5d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $41 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $102 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $50 5d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $30 5d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $46 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 10¢ $44 6d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $37 6d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $41 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 113 history records