Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:11:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A6
0xa653…08cf
crypto · 1937 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$697 -18%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$696 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$696
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses1204 / 702
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1906 / 1937
History coverage29d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day112.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 1906 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$745
7 days−$715
14 days−$693
30 days−$696
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Up 70¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Up 83¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$12 -117%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$108
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 642 -19.4% -27.1% 55% 51% -52.1%
≤30d 1906 -4.2% -13.3% 63% 59% -23.4%
≤90d 1906 -4.2% -13.3% 63% 59% -23.4%
all 1906 -4.2% -13.3% 63% 59% -23.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover112.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 59% -23.4%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 50% -30.8%
15% -29.2% 37% -37.5%
20% -36.1% 25% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.81 · official $0.69 (match) · 3500 history records