Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:43:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa64f…e073 sports 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$197 (-21%) realized −$196 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate68%13W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$69
30 days−$236
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$238
other 13% +$36
politics 4% +$1
world 3% −$2
tech 3% +$1
economics 3% $0
weather 2% $0
culture 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-28.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -66.9% -70.1% 25% 25% -64.3%
≤90d 14 -22.3% -29.7% 64% 36% -32.1%
all 19 -21.4% -28.9% 68% 26% -30.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.9% 26% -30.3%
10% -35.7% 21% -36.9%
15% -41.9% 11% -43.0%
20% -47.6% 5% -48.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$58 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized−$196
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses13 / 6
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage169d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Manel Kape 60¢ 60¢ $77 $76 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 09 $70 −$69 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $71 −$71 -99%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $116 +$38 +32%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (BO3) - May 21 $136 −$134 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $122 +$53 +44%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? May 15 $9 +$1 +17%
2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds over 40% by March 31? May 15 $13 $0 +4%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March May 15 $13 $0 +1%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in Febru May 15 $17 $0 +0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? May 15 $26 $0 +1%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 15 $29 +$17 +57%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 15 $113 +$36 +32%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 29 $42 −$42 -99%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 17 $30 −$29 -99%
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? Feb 04 $13 $0 +3%
Trump's new travel ban on Palestinians removed by January 31? Feb 04 $21 $0 +2%
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 31 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Jan 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Brown University shooter not be arrested in 2025? Jan 08 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Manel Kape 60¢ $78 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 59¢ $70 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 62¢ $71 14d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY PARIVISION 75¢ $116 22d
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (BO3) - BUY Hanwha Life Esports Challengers 33¢ $136 27d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs BUY Spirit 69¢ $122 33d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $56 40d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $56 40d
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves BUY Nuggets 68¢ $42 49d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 63¢ $29 52d
Rockets vs. Lakers BUY Rockets 67¢ $30 60d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY Yes 99¢ $13 91d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in Febru BUY No 100¢ $17 98d
2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds over 40% by March 31? BUY No 97¢ $13 106d
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 86¢ $9 109d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? BUY No 99¢ $26 124d
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? BUY No 97¢ $13 136d
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? BUY Yes $2 147d
Trump's new travel ban on Palestinians removed by January 31? BUY No 98¢ $21 152d
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $25 160d
Will the Brown University shooter not be arrested in 2025? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 168d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.48 · official $76.48 (match) · 34 history records