Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:07:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A6 0xa64d…cad1 crypto 374 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 6d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (493 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$28,116 (+13%) realized +$27,059 · open +$1,057
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate36%299W / 521L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$600per market
Trades / day492.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4,819now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$4,280
other 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (493 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-47.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 820 -41.9% -47.4% 36% 12% -18.4%
≤30d 820 -41.9% -47.4% 36% 12% -18.4%
≤90d 820 -41.9% -47.4% 36% 12% -18.4%
all 820 -41.9% -47.4% 36% 12% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover492.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -47.4% 12% -18.4%
10% ← realistic here -52.4% 7% -26.2%
15% -57.0% 5% -33.4%
20% -61.2% 5% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -77% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$84 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$4,819
Realized+$27,059
Unrealized+$1,057
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses299 / 521
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)820 / 374
History coverage6d ⚠
Avg bet$600
Trades / day492.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 820 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? Down 49¢ 92¢ $1,205 $2,266 +$1,061 (+88%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 10PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 492 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 5PM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $79 −$79 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $125 +$12 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $39 +$8 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 11AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 7PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$24 +4470%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 11AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 10PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +669%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 8AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 4AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +346%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $111 −$115 -103%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 8PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +113%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $202 −$204 -101%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 6AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 5AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $60 −$60 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 10AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$171 -1050%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 19? Jun 16 $35 −$45 -127%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $59 −$59 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $45 −$45 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 7AM ET Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 11PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 7PM ET Jun 16 $29 −$175 -604%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 1? Jun 16 $53 −$52 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $56 −$74 -133%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 1PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 10AM ET Jun 16 $33 −$100 -306%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $128 −$128 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $159 −$160 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 30? Jun 16 $163 −$111 -68%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $15 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $349 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $28 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $79 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $178 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $157 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $105 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $33 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $18 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $226 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $32 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $228 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $226 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $289 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $121 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $62 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $98 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $98 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $355 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $66 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $157 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $103 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $170 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $46 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,819.45 · official $4,809.97 (match) · 3500 history records