Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:03:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A6 0xa64b…e453 sports 67 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$67 (+3%) realized +$53 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate59%39W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$70
7 days−$279
14 days−$206
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$4
other 4% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -38.1% -44.0% 36% 32% -32.2%
≤30d 66 +12.8% +2.1% 59% 58% -8.5%
≤90d 66 +12.8% +2.1% 59% 58% -8.5%
all 66 +12.8% +2.1% 59% 58% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.1% 58% -8.5%
10% -7.7% 58% -17.3%
15% -16.6% 58% -25.3%
20% -24.8% 45% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$27 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized+$53
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses39 / 27
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)66 / 67
History coverage28d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries Atlanta Dream 54¢ 64¢ $80 $94 +$14 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 27 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: shimmer vs MIBR fe (BO5) - Rainhas do Clutch FERJEE Pl Jun 27 $83 +$43 +52%
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs Clutchain Female (BO3) - Rainhas do C Jun 26 $21 +$9 +42%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $41 −$41 -100%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $73 +$32 +43%
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm Jun 26 $41 −$40 -98%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $41 +$32 +79%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - Super Dracu Jun 25 $41 +$32 +79%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick W Jun 25 $36 +$54 +151%
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 25 $11 −$11 -98%
Spread: Chicago Sky (-3.5) Jun 25 $102 −$101 -98%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever Jun 25 $112 −$10 -9%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $73 +$40 +54%
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North Jun 24 $48 +$24 +51%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-5.5) Jun 24 $17 −$17 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-3.5) Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 24 $13 −$13 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 24 $41 −$41 -100%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) Jun 24 $39 −$39 -100%
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C Jun 24 $49 −$49 -100%
Spread: New York Liberty (-5.5) Jun 24 $64 −$64 -100%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $47 +$1 +3%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 20 $24 +$15 +65%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $3 +$14 +442%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$8 +42%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $20 +$35 +170%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 12 $17 −$17 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $25 +$13 +52%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 +$15 +149%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $20 +$18 +91%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 Jun 09 $20 +$21 +101%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $20 +$13 +62%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $20 +$14 +70%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 07 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $20 +$30 +145%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-9.5) Jun 07 $20 +$21 +101%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $10 +$13 +132%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $14 +$10 +70%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $12 +$5 +39%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $8 −$8 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-3.5) Jun 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Map Handicap: MIBR (-1.5) vs Lynn Vision (+1.5) Jun 04 $20 +$12 +57%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $19 +$9 +48%
Map Handicap: B8 (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) Jun 03 $20 +$8 +42%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 03 $20 +$11 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Atlanta Dream 54¢ $81 1h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Washington Mystics 50¢ $41 1h
Counter-Strike: shimmer vs MIBR fe (BO5) - Rainhas do Clutch FERJEE Pl BUY MIBR fe 65¢ $83 9h
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs Clutchain Female (BO3) - Rainhas do C BUY Clutchain Female 70¢ $21 11h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 100¢ $104 11h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 69¢ $73 12h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite - Map 2 Winner BUY Infinite 41¢ $41 14h
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm BUY New York Liberty 49¢ $41 24h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $41 26h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - Super Dracu BUY Infinite 55¢ $41 31h
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick W SELL largadosypelados 100¢ $89 34h
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick W BUY largadosypelados 39¢ $36 36h
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Atlanta Dream 13¢ $11 47h
Spread: Chicago Sky (-3.5) BUY PortlandFire 44¢ $102 2d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever SELL Indiana Fever 74¢ $102 2d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 80¢ $112 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $112 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 64¢ $73 2d
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North SELL Azure Dragon Gaming 100¢ $73 2d
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North BUY Azure Dragon Gaming 66¢ $48 2d
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C BUY FOKUS 57¢ $49 3d
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B SELL FOKUS 51¢ $49 3d
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY FOKUS 48¢ $47 3d
Spread: New York Liberty (-5.5) BUY New York Liberty 53¢ $64 5d
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) BUY Golden State Valkyries 48¢ $39 5d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $24 7d
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-5.5) BUY Los Angeles Sparks 53¢ $17 11d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 100¢ $17 11d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 18¢ $3 11d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 58¢ $41 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.07 · official $94.07 (match) · 128 history records