Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:58:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A6 0xa647…268d sports 267 markets active 12h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$196 (+7%) realized +$196 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate50%129W / 127L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day19.5pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days+$148
14 days−$212
30 days+$139
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$207
other 8% −$32
crypto 7% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -2.7% -12.0% 48% 48% +7.5%
≤30d 256 -1.2% -10.6% 50% 49% -4.7%
≤90d 256 -1.2% -10.6% 50% 49% -4.7%
all 256 -1.2% -10.6% 50% 49% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 49% -4.7%
10% -19.2% 46% -13.8%
15% -27.0% 39% -22.2%
20% -34.2% 32% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +32% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized+$196
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses129 / 127
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions11
Markets (closed)256 / 267
History coverage30d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day19.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 256 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-5%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+27%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+33%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-9%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $82 +$31 +38%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $23 +$18 +78%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$8 -80%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$8 +81%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 14 $10 +$2 +15%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins Jun 14 $30 +$13 +44%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -12%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $10 −$6 -64%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $15 +$17 +109%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $15 +$3 +19%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions Jun 13 $30 +$14 +47%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers Jun 13 $10 +$3 +32%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 13 $10 +$3 +26%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions Jun 13 $10 −$9 -89%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz Jun 13 $10 +$6 +59%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins Jun 13 $10 +$6 +60%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -95%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$10 +98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$13 +246%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 +$28 +543%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 12 $15 +$7 +45%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins Jun 12 $15 −$14 -96%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $78 +$17 +22%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $5 +$6 +109%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team (BO3) - Asia Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Mast Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $76 +$70 +92%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy (BO3) - Asia Masters Group B Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$10 +194%
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $15 +$51 +332%
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $10 +$3 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 12h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $41 12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 12h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $23 12h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $18 12h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 6¢ $10 22h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 66¢ $59 22h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins SELL LG Twins 76¢ $44 23h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 40¢ $2 23h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 39¢ $34 24h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 39¢ $18 24h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 29¢ $41 24h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 34h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 28¢ $4 34h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $32 35h
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Over 2¢ $0 35h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $10 43h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 43h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 43h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 43h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 43h
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $5 43h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 75¢ $10 43h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $15 43h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 43h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 43h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 43h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 44h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 44h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.62 · official $83.62 (match) · 741 history records