Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:04:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A6 0xa645…0be6 other 367 markets active 0h ago coverage 620d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6,088 (+4%) realized +$6,475 · open −$387
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate37%134W / 230L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$369per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$565est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$479now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$398
7 days+$2,758
14 days+$2,271
30 days+$1,491
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$4,321
sports 42% +$2,984
world 2% −$966
economics 1% −$1,001
crypto 1% −$301
politics 0% −$297
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +5.0% -5.0% 42% 42% +13.6%
≤30d 44 -7.2% -16.0% 36% 36% -1.0%
≤90d 95 -11.7% -20.1% 31% 31% -7.0%
all 364 -8.4% -17.2% 37% 36% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 36% -6.0%
10% -25.1% 36% -15.0%
15% -32.3% 35% -23.2%
20% -39.0% 34% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -20% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$565 vs −$307 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

620d coverage
Net worth$479
Realized+$6,475
Unrealized−$387
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses134 / 230
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$565
Open positions2
Markets (closed)364 / 367
History coverage620d
Avg bet$369
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 364 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Yes 22¢ 18¢ $486 $410 −$76 (-16%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Over 19¢ $380 $69 −$311 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $996 +$1,319 +132%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $162 −$158 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $997 −$981 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $599 −$589 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $204 −$200 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $517 +$483 +93%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $499 +$523 +105%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $511 +$1,568 +307%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $509 −$500 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $499 +$591 +118%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $794 −$756 -95%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $299 +$710 +238%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $300 +$518 +172%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $306 −$300 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $901 +$613 +68%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $101 −$99 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $450 −$442 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $764 +$834 +109%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $405 +$714 +176%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $509 −$500 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $498 −$487 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $200 −$196 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $149 −$145 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $150 −$146 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $301 −$294 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $298 −$292 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $307 +$459 +150%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $505 +$519 +103%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $499 −$490 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $297 −$291 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $95 −$93 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 01 $204 −$200 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 01 $301 −$301 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $200 +$333 +166%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $298 −$291 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $299 +$341 +114%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniel Altmaier May 26 $199 +$276 +139%
Roland Garros ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Gael Monfils May 25 $301 +$284 +94%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $160 −$155 -97%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $489 −$489 -100%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-05-24? May 22 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $100 −$97 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina May 16 $399 +$735 +184%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $226 −$222 -98%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5 May 15 $198 +$231 +116%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Iga Swiatek vs Elina Svitolina May 14 $500 +$550 +110%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Martin Landaluce vs Daniil Medvedev May 14 $199 +$342 +172%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 22¢ $498 8m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 19¢ $15 27m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 19¢ $47 27m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 19¢ $12 28m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 19¢ $47 28m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 19¢ $47 29m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 19¢ $47 30m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 19¢ $47 30m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 19¢ $47 30m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 19¢ $47 30m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 19¢ $0 30m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 19¢ $23 31m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 19¢ $1 31m
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) SELL Brazil 75¢ $2,315 39m
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 31¢ $996 1h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $162 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $997 3h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 23¢ $101 5h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $498 6h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $204 27h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $517 30h
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,022 31h
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $499 32h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 2d
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $2,080 2d
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 24¢ $511 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $509 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,090 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $499 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 50¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $478.96 · official $544.28 · 998 history records