Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:57:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A6 0xa642…e3af crypto 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 629d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$28 (+0%) realized +$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate98%39W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 73% −$45
crypto 17% +$65
world 3% +$2
other 2% +$1
economics 2% +$1
tech 2% +$1
sports 1% +$3
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 3 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 9 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -8.9%
all 40 +4.4% -5.5% 98% 8% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 8% -9.1%
10% -14.5% 5% -17.8%
15% -22.8% 2% -25.8%
20% -30.4% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$45 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

629d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized+$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses39 / 1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)40 / 43
History coverage629d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $120 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $51 $51 +$0 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? Jun 22 $60 +$1 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May? Jun 22 $24 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $170 in May? Jun 22 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m May 08 $23 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA reach $264 in April? May 08 $23 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 08 $31 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in April? May 08 $35 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Apr 12 $19 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of March? Apr 12 $26 $0 +1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 07 $65 $0 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of February? Mar 06 $22 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 06 $22 +$1 +2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb Feb 15 $25 $0 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 11, 2026? Feb 15 $19 $0 +1%
Trump out as President by March 31? Feb 11 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in January? Feb 11 $53 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? Feb 11 $35 $0 +1%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 09 $52 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 09 $56 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Dec 10 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $5,600 in November? Dec 10 $56 $0 +1%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Nov 13 $33 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 13 $34 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in September? Oct 28 $104 +$2 +2%
Will Solana reach $290 in August? Aug 29 $104 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in July? Aug 28 $102 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in June? Jul 14 $20 +$5 +27%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Jul 14 $76 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? Jun 12 $92 +$4 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? May 07 $49 +$43 +89%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by March 31? Apr 09 $46 +$3 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by February 28, 2025? Feb 25 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Solana hit $300 by February 28 2025? Feb 24 $24 +$1 +4%
Grizzlies vs. Lakers Feb 10 $11 +$2 +15%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2024? Feb 10 $31 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Dec 16 $121 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? Dec 10 $41 $0 +1%
Ethereum above $3,300 on November 29? Nov 30 $41 $0 +1%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Nov 29 $40 +$1 +3%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 14 $4,474 −$45 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $120 in June? BUY No 100¢ $51 1h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $42 1h
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $61 1h
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $60 44d
Will Solana reach $170 in May? BUY No 100¢ $28 44d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $24 44d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $23 70d
Will NVIDIA reach $264 in April? BUY No 100¢ $23 70d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 99¢ $31 83d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in April? BUY No 100¢ $35 83d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL No 100¢ $66 107d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of March? BUY No 99¢ $26 108d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? BUY No 100¢ $19 108d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 98¢ $22 127d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of February? BUY No 100¢ $22 127d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb SELL No 99¢ $25 127d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 99¢ $65 131d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb BUY No 98¢ $25 131d
US strikes Iran by February 11, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $19 131d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL No 97¢ $21 131d
Trump out as President by March 31? BUY No 97¢ $21 164d
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? BUY No 99¢ $35 164d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in January? BUY No 99¢ $53 164d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 99¢ $56 194d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $52 194d
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $51 194d
Will Ethereum reach $5,600 in November? BUY No 99¢ $56 221d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? SELL No 98¢ $33 221d
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? BUY No 98¢ $50 221d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.55 · official $112.55 (match) · 147 history records