Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:52:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A6 0xa640…40c2 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 211d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$135 (-17%) realized −$80 · open −$55
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%3W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$390now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 211d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$148
sports 2% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +34.2% +21.4% 29% 29% -35.4%
≤30d 7 +34.2% +21.4% 29% 29% -35.4%
≤90d 7 +34.2% +21.4% 29% 29% -35.4%
all 10 +11.8% +1.1% 30% 30% -34.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.1% 30% -34.7%
10% -8.5% 30% -41.0%
15% -17.4% 30% -46.7%
20% -25.5% 30% -51.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$41 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

211d coverage
Net worth$390
Realized−$80
Unrealized−$55
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses3 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage211d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 48¢ 42¢ $445 $390 −$55 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 −$2 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$5 -26%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$6 +311%
Will Karol G perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Jun 17 $50 +$177 +354%
Will Travis Scott perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Drake perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Jun 17 $219 −$219 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Tsarukyan (Lightweight, Main Card) Nov 22 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Cortes-Acosta vs. Gaziev (Heavyweight, Main Card) Nov 22 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Horiguchi vs. Ulanbekov (Flyweight, Prelims) Nov 22 $5 +$4 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 46¢ $100 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 46¢ $98 2h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 46¢ $28 2h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 50¢ $219 9h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 58¢ $15 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 4d
Will Karol G perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? BUY Yes 22¢ $50 132d
Will Drake perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? BUY Yes 15¢ $50 132d
Will Drake perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 132d
Will Drake perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? BUY Yes 21¢ $160 132d
Will Travis Scott perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? BUY Yes 33¢ $50 132d
UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Tsarukyan (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY Hooker 14¢ $2 211d
UFC Fight Night: Cortes-Acosta vs. Gaziev (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Gaziev 40¢ $2 211d
UFC Fight Night: Horiguchi vs. Ulanbekov (Flyweight, Prelims) SELL Horiguchi 59¢ $9 211d
UFC Fight Night: Horiguchi vs. Ulanbekov (Flyweight, Prelims) BUY Horiguchi 33¢ $5 211d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $390.04 · official $390.04 (match) · 22 history records